Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 190431
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1131 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
issued at 243 PM CDT Friday Oct 18 2019
Forecast focus is for gusty winds today until sunset, and then a
strong low pressure system on Sunday into Monday that will bring
thunderstorms, cooler temperatures and gusty winds.
The pressure gradient and mixing of 40-50 knot winds above the
surface is producing gusty winds of 35-45 mph. Wind Advisory is in
effect until 6 PM for northwest MO counties. Winds will decrease tonight as
inversion sets up and pressure gradient relaxes. A cold front will
move in from Kansas overnight through the morning hours with
showers. Instability is almost nonexistent but could be just enough
for one or two stray lightning strikes but this will mainly be a
rain event. The front will then move east tomorrow afternoon with
light rain ending across the eastern areas by late afternoon.
A surface high will briefly move across Missouri Saturday night and
early Sunday morning which will produce a good setup for fog across
much of the forecast area with wet ground, nearly calm winds and
clear skies. For now will not mention dense fog, but needs to be
Our focus than shifts to a stronger system deepening to our west on
Sunday. Winds will increase on Sunday from the south and southeast
but will stay well below advisory levels. Cold front will move
across the western counties and kc Metro area Sunday evening expect
showers and storms to develop near the Metro area and increase in
coverage as they move east into higher moisture source.
Thunderstorms expected to be non-severe due to limited moisture with
pws of 1-1.2 inches near front and limited cape, there will be
decent mid level lapse rates and shear near 50 knots which could
support a few strong storms especially in areas south of Highway 50.
Sunday night into Monday strong westerly and northwesterly flow
develops behind front as pressure gradient and cold air advection
mixes wind to the surface. Gusts of 30-40 mph likely, will need to
watch for possible advisory level winds Monday in far northern
counties but for now looks to stay just below advisory levels.
Otherwise cooler Monday and Tuesday with highs in upper 50s to near
60 and lows in 40s.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1129 PM CDT Friday Oct 18 2019
VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front pushes through the
area overnight. A band of rain showers will move into the area
around 9-10z with some lower VFR ceilings, isolated thunder is
possible so thunderstorms in the vicinity was added for this possible threat. As the front
passes through around 12z a lower MVFR ceiling and even possible
IFR ceilings will move into the region through the late morning.
Light rain and lower MVFR visibilities will also be possible
through 18z when precipitation over western Missouri will end. The
ceilings look to lift into VFR conditions around 20-21z and last
through the end of the period.