Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 231141
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019
issued at 401 am CDT Friday Aug 23 2019
Forecast this morning is for a lovely end of the work week and
start to the weekend, though the later half of the weekend and
beginning of next work week may be a bit active with storms.
Satellite imagery this morning shows a large ridge over the plains
states, with a nice cool surface high oozing its way across the
central and northern plains. And, it is this nice seasonally cool
surface high that will keep conditions rather pleasant through the
weekend. For today, expect highs around 80, with 70s expected both
Saturday and Sunday.
Later half of the weekend and into next work week is when the chance
for storms returns. The first chance will arrive Saturday night into
Sunday, as a shortwave trough ejects itself from the prevailing
westerlies through the Central Plains. Confidence on how the
shortwave will eject through the plains states is a bit low (i.E.
The shortwave may move to our north or south), but it is sufficient
to warrant some chance pops Saturday night through Sunday. Then, we
wait for another widespread chance for rain to arrive Monday as
another trough digs in behind the leading trough that brought
sunday's chance for storms. This deepening trough will sweep a cold
font across the our section of the plains Monday and Monday night.
We will need to watch Monday, as currently the solutions indicate
any severe threat would be to our south, but that potential could
shift north. Otherwise, next work week looks generally pleasant, as
temperatures will wallow around in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with
on-again-off-again storm chances as the large trough, that dug into
the northern plains to state the work week, will stick around
through the following weekend.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 641 am CDT Friday Aug 23 2019
VFR cigs currently prevail across the state line terminals. Expect
what cloud cover there is to stay in the VFR range or scatter out
by the late morning hours. Otherwise, expect a light wind from the
east over the next 24 hours.