Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 222009
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
309 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019
issued at 308 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019
This afternoon a cold front is moving through the County Warning Area and as of 3pm
is generally along the I-35 corridor. Just out ahead of the front
is a narrow line of showers with occasional embedded thunder.
This line will push east through the County Warning Area this afternoon into the
early evening before finally exiting the area. Tonight, surface
high pressure will move directly over the County Warning Area. This will provide
light winds, and clear skies and with very moist conditions, fog
has been added to the forecast for tonight into tomorrow morning.
Models suggest visibility dropping to 2 to 4 miles however there
may be areas of dense fog and that will need to be monitored for
the possibility of a dense fog advisory tomorrow morning. High
pressure will remain over the area through the day Monday with
very comfortable and seasonable highs in the mid 70s. Monday night
high pressure shifts eastward and warm air advection returns to the area on
Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday night a
mid-level shortwave will move from the northern plains into the
upper Midwest forcing a cold front into the area. This will bring
the chance for another round of thunderstorms to the area. There
are some model difference as to how far the south the front makes
it which will keep the potential for storms across the southern
County Warning Area Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The next good chance for storms will come Friday into Friday night
as a strong shortwave moves from the Central Plains into the upper
Midwest. This will send another cold front into the area and with
the potential for deep moisture to again be in place, heavy rain and
severe weather may be possible with this system. Behind that system
next weekend expect seasonably warm and dry conditions to prevail
with highs in the mid 80s.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1228 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019
A cold front is movg thru the terminals at the beginning of the
taf pd veering winds to the west by 18z and then the north-northwest by 20z.
As the front moves thru there will be the chc for a brf -shra so
added a vcsh to the taf thru 20z. MVFR cigs will prevail thru
23z- 00z before cigs sct out this evening. High press will move in
tonight bringing lgt winds and clr skies setting up the chc for
fog development. Currently have vsbys reducing to 4sm-5sm aft 06z
and dropping to IFR btn 1/2sm-2sm btn 09z-13z however, it may be
lower. Vsbys should improve by 15z with VFR conds prevailing.