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fxus63 keax 221043 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
543 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

issued at 239 am CDT Tuesday Oct 22 2019

A short-fuse warming trend is expected to begin today in what will
be another breezy day with temperatures running about 5 degrees
below normal. Expect highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds will
subside this evening as a ridge of surface high pressure passes to
the south. By Wednesday morning, the ridge of high pressure will
move east of the area with a cold front moving into the Central
Plains. This will allow the pressure gradient to tighten across the
local area allowing modest warm air advection to return. This will allow
temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 60s out ahead of the
front which will move into the forecast area late in the day/evening
on Wednesday. Models indicate that Wednesday night a low level jet develops
and provides lift over the front for showers to develop. However,
despite it only begin 36-48 hours out in the forecast period, models
still not in great agreement as to how far south the front will be
at that time and where the low level jet will focus. The most likely scenario
would bring rain to areas along and south of Interstate 70 with
areas further north remaining dry on Thursday into Thursday night.
What does seem certain is that Thursday will be a much cooler day
behind the cold front and under cloudy conditions. Expect high
temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 which is 10 to 15 degrees
below normal. These cool conditions will continue into Friday as
surface high pressure move into the region. Expect highs in the low
to mid 50s. High pressure slides eastward by Saturday with a return
to warm air advection out ahead of the next system. Expect highs on Saturday in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Model solutions diverge significantly beyond Saturday. The GFS
advertises a much slower and much weaker upper level shortwave
moving through the region late Sunday night providing dry conditions
through the weekend. The ec advertises a much quicker and very
strong slightly negative tilted upper level shortwave ejecting out
of the southwestern Continental U.S. Into the the Central Plains by Saturday
night. This scenario would produce thunderstorm with the potential
of some being severe. However, the ec scenario is one that has just
emerged and has not shown the run to run consistency consequently
the GFS is preferred for latter half of next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 543 am CDT Tuesday Oct 22 2019

The main concern for aviators this taf pd will be for strong
westerly winds btn 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt thru 23z. By
sunset winds should diminish to 5-10kts and back to the SW and
then to the south late in the pd. Otrw...conds will be VFR with
clr skies today giving way to sct high clouds this evening before
bkn mid-lvl clouds around 10kft move into the terminals late in
the cycle.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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