Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 150936 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 am CST sun Dec 15 2019

issued at 329 am CST sun Dec 15 2019

A winter storm will impact the region over a two day period in two
rounds, the first of which will occur this morning through the
afternoon, the second of which will arrive Monday morning through
the afternoon/evening time frame. Have increased forecast snowfall
accumulations up to the 5 to 7 inch range, generally along an axis
from the Missouri River to Highway 50, including the Kansas City
area. Overall ice accumulations should be limited to around a tenth
of an inch or less, mainly focused south of I-70. Have issued a
Winter Storm Warning for areas along the Missouri River and points
south, beginning this morning until Monday evening for accumulating
snowfall up to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. A
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas across northeast
Kansas and northern Missouri, for accumulating snowfall in the 2
to 4 inch range through Monday.

The mid to upper-level storm system moved inland Saturday evening
and is now working closer to The Four Corners as of early Sunday
morning. Areas of light precipitation are noted on radar imagery
within an area of broad and weak ascent ahead of the deepening
upper-level trough axis. Cloud bases remain high as of early
Sunday morning, thus not anticipating much precip reaching the
surface initially, though this mid-level activity will help to
saturate and prime the column before shortwave energy begins to
work its way into the area this afternoon. For this morning, will
see increasing precip chances by the mid to late morning across
the area. With the cold air mass already in place, Road temps are
currently in the 28 to 30 degree range and untreated and elevated
surfaces will quickly become slick once snowfall commences.
Expecting to see up to an inch across most of the area before
noon, while the peak window for activity today will be from noon
to 6 PM. At that time, seeing signals for strong forcing in the
mid-levels and perhaps a convective element, to support high snow
rates along an axis extending from eastern Kansas through eastern
Missouri. The exact location of where this band of potential heavy
snowfall sets up is of course prone to shifting, though currently
thinking areas south of the Missouri River and north of Highway
50 may see afternoon snowfall totals in the 3 to 4 inch range.
Roadways will quickly become hazardous if untreated, and high snow
rates will lead to reductions in visibility during peak weekend
travel periods. This evening, the loss of cloud ice will cause
snow to transition to freezing rain/freezing drizzle for areas
mainly south of Highway 36, though overall precip chances will
begin to wane overnight. The main threat at this point will be
with accumulating ice up to a tenth of an inch for areas south of

The second round of wintry precip will arrive Monday morning as the
main mid to upper-level trough moves into the Central Plains. This
round appears to be less intense than what models previously
suggested, though additional mid-level forcing for widespread precip
will add to existing complications from Sunday. Precip will
transition back to snow as moisture availability deepens and cloud
ice returns. The peak window of activity Monday will be from the mid-
morning through the mid-afternoon hours, possibly affecting both the
morning and evening commutes. Snow rates should not be as high as
compared to Sunday, though by this point accumulating snowfall
will begin to approach the 5 to 7 inch mark, with some areas
possibly seeing higher amounts where snow banding develops. The
other consideration in all of this is that temperatures will
remain below freezing throughout the event. Thus, travelers who
may become stranded could be exposed to wind chills near 20
degrees both Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Precip will finally come to an end Monday evening, with dry
conditions returning for the remainder of the work week. Temperature
trends will slowly rebound beginning Tuesday and will continue the
upward climb through the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1117 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate as a winter storm
approaches the region this morning. Light snow will start over the
area around sunrise, but visibility and ceilings should stay VFR
until the higher snow rates move into the area in the late
morning. These higher snow rates will result in IFR to LIFR
visibilities and IFR ceilings. The heaviest snowfall rates and
lowest visibility will move into the area in the 16-22z timeframe
with 1/2sm visibility possible at times. The snow will start to
tapper off around 23-00z which will improve visibility, but
ceilings look to stay around IFR, except for up near kstj where
they may lift to MVFR. Freezing drizzle still looks to be a
potential issue from 00-04z, but should be contained to areas
along and south of the Missouri River with kmci being just north
of that threat.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for ksz057-060-

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for ksz025-102.

MO...Winter Storm Warning from 9 am this morning to midnight CST
Monday night for moz030>033-038>040-044>046-054.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for moz028-029-037-

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for moz001>006-

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 am this morning to midnight CST
Monday night for moz007-008-014>017-022>025.


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations