Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 191118
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 am CDT Mon Aug 19 2019
issued at 302 am CDT Monday Aug 19 2019
Satellite imagery this morning shows a low amplitude pattern in
place across the nation, with a trough sweeping east across the
Great Lakes and a modest ridge axis poking north across The Rockies.
This has left a bit of a weak surface high sliding across the plains
under a shallow northwest flow late in the weekend. And, as this
high slides to our east today, southerly winds and synoptic level
height gains all point at afternoon highs bounding back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s today, and maybe a little hotter Tuesday.
Combining that heat with the resent rains and resulting surface
moisture, and heat indices will likely range around 105 degrees
today and Tuesday. Worst of today's heat may stay south of the
Missouri River, but will likely expand north into Tuesday. Plan on
leaving the current heat advisory as is for today and Tuesday.
However, heat isn't the only weather issue to watch over the next
few days, as more nocturnal storm activity, and an eventual weak
frontal passage, will bring some potential for rain. Monday night
into Tuesday morning will see another chance for a mesoscale convective system to develop
and roll across the plains states, with current expectations for
that to occur across eastern Nebraska into Iowa early Tuesday
morning on the nose of the nocturnal jet. Better, widespread chance,
for rain will settle south into eastern Kansas and Missouri late
Tuesday night through Wednesday, as the northwest flow pushes a weak
frontal boundary south across the region, this activity may linger
well into the daylight hours of Wednesday, but at a minimum will
knock temperatures back down for the later half of the work week.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 609 am CDT Monday Aug 19 2019
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with light winds
generally from the east to southeast.
Kansas...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
Heat advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ksz025-057-060-
MO...heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
Heat advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for moz011-020-021-