Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 051104 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
504 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

issued at 311 am CST Thursday Dec 5 2019

An upper-level shortwave trough will move from The Four Corners area
early this morning into the Southern Plains by late this afternoon.
This is a bit slower than previous forecasts and leads to a few
changes with today's forecast. First, thicker cloud cover will be
later to arrive, allowing for more sunshine and another mild day
to unfold. This will be aided by the slower arriving surface low
and winds ahead of the surface low being more southerly. Second,
the later arrival of the system means the best chance for
precipitation will be later with the area now looking to stay dry
until 03z tonight. It also looks like the bulk of the
precipitation will be south of the area tonight. None-the-less,
will bring small rain chances north to around the Highway 50
corridor in our west and the Missouri River in our east.
Precipitation amounts should be fairly light and generally only a
few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch for folks that do
see precipitation.

We'll cool down for Friday, in the wake of the Thursday night
system, with temperatures generally in the lower 40s. Temperatures
will warm back up for the weekend as broad upper ridging and
southerly flow returns to the area. We should see highs rebound back
into the mid 50s by Sunday

For next week, a strong cold front will move through the area.
Depending on the timing, there could be a 25+ degree spread in highs
across the area Monday. But it looks like the northwestern half of
the forecast area could see highs early in the day with falling
temperatures through the daylight hours. Our southeastern zones,
where the front may not move through until later in the day, may
still be able to climb into the 50s before temperatures being to
drop during the afternoon and evening. This timing puts the most
uncertainty over the highest population areas. This will get
sorted it out in the coming days but morning temperatures in the
40s across the kc area should give way to evening temperatures in
the 30s and possibly the 20s. Model variability increases
substantially for the later half of next week. The GFS shows
stronger troughing over southeastern Canada which allows for
colder air to plunge into the middle of the US. The European model (ecmwf) and the
Canadian are more zonal in the upper pattern and thus keep the
colder air from spilling south.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 504 am CST Thursday Dec 5 2019

VFR conditions expected through the day with light winds. A cold
front will move through the area late in the forecast, shifting
winds to the north and increasing wind speeds to around 15 kts.
There may also be some gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Ceilings will trend
lower late in the forecast and have added low VFR ceilings of 3000
ft with a scattered deck at 1500 ft to indicate some potential for
MVFR conditions. Forecast soundings show the cloud depth would be
very shallow so there is some uncertainty about how thick any
cloud cover would be.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations