Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kepz 152116 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
316 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Synopsis...
dry, west flow aloft will continue through this weekend and into
much of next week. Some residual moisture over the mountains
could produce a few thunderstorms this evening and again Sunday
afternoon. The remainder of the new week ahead looks dry.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, with the
hottest days appearing to be Wednesday through Friday.

&&

Discussion...
pretty typical early Summer June weather for this forecast period,
as dry west to southwest flow will dominate the weather pattern.
Satellite and models all show weak shortwaves rotating through the
area tonight, and along with a bit of mid level moisture, left low
pops in for the mountains this evening. Having said that, visible
imagery barely showing some developing cumulus over the Black Range at
best. And dewpoint depressions still at 70+ degrees, so those
chances are quite slim.

Models continue to show modest dewpoint increases across the
northern County Warning Area Sunday. No signs of much trough support aloft, but
decent instability warrants more low pops for the mountains.

After Sunday, things look to remain dry and hot as broad area of
low pressure aloft persists from the pac northwest to the Great
Lakes area. This will result in a dry west flow aloft and little
or no chance of rain. Temperatures will remain above normal for
the entire forecast period, with Wed-Fri looking the warmest. Most
lowland sites should see some triple digit readings.

&&

Aviation...valid 16/00z-17/00z...
low-end chance of showers late this afternoon just north ktcs
bringing clouds to broken to sct150, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail. Westerly wind 10-20 knots (g25-30 knots) through 5-7z.
Westerly wind at less than 10 knots thereafter.

&&

Fire weather...
aside from low-end chances of showers tonight and tomorrow night in
the northern Gila and sacs, a dry and hot period continues through
next week. Sunday will bring another day of single digit min relative humidity for
The Lowlands, with teens in the mountains. Surface wind speeds on
Sunday will be much lighter and will stay well below critical
thresholds. Max vent rates Sunday afternoon will be very good.

For next week, wind speeds ramp back up to breezy to windy
conditions, with min relative humidity in the single digits (lowlands) to teens
(mountains) each day. Temperatures will track at seasonal averages
or above. Deep mixing and strong winds aloft will allow for good
venting for most days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 75 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 66 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 66 93 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 66 95 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 46 73 46 73 / 10 20 20 0
Truth or Consequences 69 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 61 87 62 86 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 64 96 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 63 95 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 72 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 68 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 71 101 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 69 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 73 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 67 96 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 72 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 66 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 65 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 68 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 68 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 53 83 51 84 / 10 20 20 0
Mescalero 51 83 50 83 / 10 20 20 0
Timberon 50 81 49 81 / 10 10 10 0
Winston 54 89 52 88 / 10 10 10 0
Hillsboro 63 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 64 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 54 90 53 88 / 10 10 10 0
Hurley 59 90 60 89 / 10 0 0 0
cliff 49 95 48 94 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 50 89 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 61 90 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 63 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 62 96 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 64 95 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 61 91 61 90 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations