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fxus64 kepz 061739 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
1039 am MST Fri Dec 6 2019

Aviation...18z taf cycle
high level moisture associated with the subtropical jet will
continue to increase in coverage through this afternoon and
evening. Skies will range from broken-overcast 200-250 through the period,
with some thinning-out towards Sat morning. Winds will be light
and variable behind a very weak surface trough.

&&
25-hardiman



Previous discussion...507 am MST Fri Dec 6 2019...

Synopsis...
a weak backdoor cool front will be moving through the forecast
area today, cooling temperatures only a few degrees from
thursday's highs. Upper level cloud cover will stream over the
region this afternoon into the overnight hours but dry conditions
are expected. An upper level system approaches Sunday into Monday
resulting in near breezy conditions both days. Precipitation
chances will increase in the northwestern portions of the forecast
area by midday Sunday. Rain showers continue to progress south
and east overnight Sunday, and will be steadiest across The
Lowlands on Monday. Snow showers will be possible across high
elevations of the Black Range and sacramentos but accumulations
are expected to be light. Northwest winds will usher in dryer air
Monday night. Clear skies and slightly below to near normal
temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

Discussion...
short term...
thanks to upper level high pressure we will see a pleasant day and
evening. The upper level ridge will keep our skies mostly sunny
through the noon hour. Then during the afternoon, some high level
moisture will move across the area to give US some high cloud cover.
At the surface a weak back door cold front will move across the area
this morning. This front will be a dry one and will only cool our
temperatures a few degrees from thursday's highs. The high clouds
will continue into the overnight hours, but may become a little
thinner. These high clouds will help keep our low temperatures
Saturday morning 5 to 7 degrees above average.

&&

Long term...
dry and warm conditions to start the long term period on Saturday
as upper level ridging dominates. By the second half of the
weekend the next upper level system approaches. Ahead of this
system, strong winds aloft will advect moisture into the region.
Rain is expected to develop across west/northwest portions of the
area midday Sunday, slowly spreading to the south and east late
Sunday night into early Monday. Rain will be steadiest across The
Lowlands on Monday as the main shortwave trough provides lift for
showers. Precipitation is expected to end late Monday night across
all areas as dry northwest winds aloft funnel into the region.
Breezy to marginally breezy conditions will develop Sunday and
Monday as this system impacts the Borderland. Snow showers may be
possible at times across portions of the Black Range and
Sacramento Mountains Sunday night through Monday night as snow
levels lower. Snow accumulations are expected to be light.

Dry northwest flow continues next Tuesday. Clear skies and
temperatures near to slightly below normal expected. Upper level
ridging will build into the region Wednesday resulting in
beautiful conditions: light winds, clear skies, and near normal
temperatures.

Thursday the next upper level disturbance begins to take shape.
Differences exist between operational guidance on the strength of
this system. There is support from gefs and eps guidance which
suggest a weak shortwave trough will quickly move through the
region. The current thinking is this system will move through on
Thursday but will be mainly dry as this trough appears to be
moisture starved. The strength of the system will determine if
breezy conditions develop on Thursday. By the end of next week,
the upper level pattern suggests dry northwest flow overspreading
the region once again, resulting in pleasant conditions.

&&
Delizio/Reynolds

Fire weather...
dry conditions Friday and Saturday with light winds expected. The
next storm system approaches Sunday with impacts through Monday.
Precipitation will develop around midday Sunday across
northwestern portions of the area slowly spreading south and east
through Monday. Light snow accumulations may be possible in area
mountains. Near breezy conditions will develop Sunday perhaps
lingering during the day on Monday. Dry air advects into the
region late Monday night with clear skies and light winds Tuesday
into Wednesday. The next upper level system approaches next
Thursday but confidence on any potential impacts is low as
guidance suggests a weak system.

Vent rates will be poor today through Saturday returning to fair
to good Sunday and Monday. Cooler temperatures and light winds
expected next Tuesday and Wednesday so vent rates drop back down
to poor.

Min rh's expected to be in the 30s and 40s through Saturday
increasing into the upper 40s and 50s Sunday and Monday as
moisture advects into the region. By Tuesday and Wednesday mainly
30s and 40s expected once again.

&&
Delizio/Reynolds

&&

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 63 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 61 37 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 61 36 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 60 35 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 48 29 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 55 35 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 56 35 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 60 35 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 60 37 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 62 41 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 61 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 67 39 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 59 40 61 43 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 65 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 62 36 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 61 40 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 59 35 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 61 35 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 61 37 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 61 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 56 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 54 30 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 53 30 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 52 31 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 57 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 58 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 58 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 57 33 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 62 30 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 58 35 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 58 36 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 63 36 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 61 34 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 63 37 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 61 39 62 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.

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