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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
306 PM MDT sun Sep 15 2019

Synopsis...
a quite moist airmass and a passing disturbance will keep shower
and thunderstorm chances over the Borderland this evening and
overnight, however the coverage of rainfall should begin to
decrease overnight. Moisture lingers across the region to begin
the work week, but it will be on a slight decrease to reduce rain
and storm coverage across the area. However the ingredients still
remain for daily rounds of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms early in the week. Mid week looks mostly dry and
warmer with fewer clouds before we see more rain chances again
late week.

&&

Discussion...
pwats and dewpoints indicated pretty healthy and deep atmospheric
moisture across the forecast area. The am sounding was a bit
skewed by going up in a shower, but model progs still show over
1.3" precipitable water over the area through the day. Aloft we have organized
dynamics in play this evening with a slowly lifting low pressure
system aloft dragging in an upper trough from the west. This is
accompanied by a 50kt jet and vorticity advection. This slightly
enhanced area of dynamics will likely only impact the northwest and North
County warning forecast area as it lifts NE...but the west and central areas may see some
continued evening and overnight shower and storm activity due to
it.

Monday through Wednesday the region stays under a deep SW flow
pattern aloft as an upper trough forms and hangs over the West
Coast as high pressure continues parked over the Southern Plains
to our east. We will see some drying move in from the northwest with
the deeper moisture shoved to the southern and eastern areas of
the County warning forecast area. Thus our pops will reflect that pattern with lower pops
NW, increasing as you move S and east. With the air becoming somewhat
drier (pwats down to around 1.0") fewer clouds will mean
temperatures warming back to above seasonal normals.

Thursday and Friday bring a conundrum as the gfe and ec models go
with different outcomes despite very similar pattern. The West
Coast trough will press east slowly across the western U.S. At low
levels the Gulf remains open with southeast flow across Texas into the
region. The GFS model connects with subtropical moisture aloft to
bring in another period of deeper moisture and good dynamics to
produce widespread showers and storms. The ec keeps the flow in at
mid and upper levels drier and thus produces much more limited
precipitation. None the less, with both solutions we will keep
pops in the forecast and keep them higher southeast areas and lower as
you go northwest across the forecast area.

As the upper trough passes east across The Rockies both models
show a veering of winds aloft to the west which will start a more
complete drying across the region. Models in the longer term
periods show a highly amplified pattern over the western half of
the U.S. Which seems to show the beginning of a seasonal pattern
shift from the lower energy Summer pattern, to a fall pattern.

14-bird

&&

Aviation...valid 16/00z-17/00z...
generally VFR but with periods of MVFR and IFR conditions near
showers and thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through 3z are possible, then scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms through 9z. Mountain obscurations will be
possible overnight. Tomorrow after 18z storm chances come back again
to the forecast, but with better chances in area mountains. Winds
will be generally from the south and southeast between 5 to 15 kts.

29- crespo

&&

Fire weather...
the upper level closed low that brought the rainfall of the past few
days will start lifting to our north tonight. So, a gradual
diminishing of precipitation chances is expected over the next few
days. Tomorrow, the precip chances will be more focused on area
mountains. In consequence, minimum relative humidity will be
decreasing from above 35% in The Lowlands and 40% in the mountains,
to 25% lowlands and 30% mountains by Wednesday. Temperatures will be
slowly increasing too, which will result in higher mixing levels and
subsequently better ventilation rates. Tomorrow vent rates will be
mostly poor and fair, and then slightly improve by Tuesday to mostly
fair and good.

29- crespo

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 67 86 68 88 / 50 10 20 10
Sierra Blanca 62 84 63 85 / 30 10 10 10
Las Cruces 62 83 62 84 / 60 20 20 10
Alamogordo 64 85 64 86 / 30 20 20 20
Cloudcroft 48 63 48 65 / 30 50 30 30
Truth or Consequences 61 81 62 84 / 60 30 30 20
Silver City 55 75 56 77 / 50 40 30 20
Deming 60 82 61 85 / 50 30 30 10
Lordsburg 59 82 61 84 / 30 30 20 10
west El Paso Metro 67 86 68 87 / 50 10 20 10
Dell City 65 88 66 89 / 20 10 10 10
Fort Hancock 68 89 69 91 / 30 10 0 10
Loma Linda 63 81 63 83 / 30 20 20 20
Fabens 68 87 68 88 / 40 10 10 10
Santa Teresa 65 85 65 86 / 50 20 20 10
White Sands hq 64 84 64 86 / 50 20 20 10
Jornada range 61 83 62 85 / 50 20 20 10
Hatch 62 84 62 86 / 60 30 30 10
Columbus 62 83 63 85 / 50 20 20 10
Orogrande 64 85 64 86 / 40 10 20 10
Mayhill 53 73 53 75 / 30 50 30 30
Mescalero 53 73 52 74 / 30 40 30 30
Timberon 51 71 52 73 / 30 30 30 30
Winston 50 74 50 77 / 60 50 30 20
Hillsboro 57 80 58 83 / 60 40 30 20
spaceport 60 82 60 85 / 50 30 20 20
Lake Roberts 50 75 50 78 / 60 40 30 20
Hurley 56 77 56 80 / 50 40 30 20
cliff 55 82 55 84 / 50 40 20 20
Mule Creek 55 78 57 79 / 50 40 30 10
Faywood 56 78 57 81 / 50 40 30 20
Animas 60 82 60 84 / 30 30 20 10
Hachita 58 81 58 83 / 40 30 20 10
Antelope Wells 59 81 59 83 / 30 30 30 20
Cloverdale 58 78 58 79 / 30 30 20 20

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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