Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 180742
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
342 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
Short term /today through Thursday/...
latest regional surface analysis indicates weak low pressure over
SW Georgia as backdoor front begins to move in from the Carolinas.
Convergence from these 2 features has been just enough to spark
very isolated thunderstorm activity over central Georgia at this hour.
This should be fleeting however with decreasing instability
through daybreak. We continue very warm well into the overnight
period with atl just now going below the 80 degree mark.
Wedge front should make good progress today in moving through the
forecast area. Best deep layer moisture to take advantage of this
front will be over central Georgia where precipitable water will
approach 2 inches. Likewise, instability will be highest over
central Georgia and to a lesser extent across the western tier late in
the day. Have pegged highest pops for today across the extreme
southern zones where will advertise mid range chance pops given
aforementioned instability, moisture, and front. Chance pops will
be carried north along i75 to the southern Metro with just
isolated pops elsewhere.
Relief is on the way! Well at least partially and I personally will
take anything I can get. Lows will finally get below 70 at even atl
Wed night with mid 50s mountains to mid 60s elsewhere.
Lower to mid 80s for Thu afternoon which is 15 degrees below rest
days values in some cases but still only around normal. But with
the much lower dewpoints possibly dropping into the upper 40s,
conditions should be quite pleasant comparatively.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
no significant concerns for the long term as an overall
quiet period looks to be in store.
Mainly dry surface high pressure will predominate along the
eastern Seaboard until a weak mainly dry cold front moves into
north Georgia on Tuesday. GFS and European are inconsistent with this
front on rain chances at this time.
Temperatures will start off within several degrees of normal
and then warm up to above normal from Sunday on.
some mainly mid level clouds continue to stream across the area
but mostly remaining in the scattered range. As a front moves in from
the east, winds should shift to easterly and remain on the east
side with low end gusts for the balance of the day. Lower clouds
to move in from the east as well, but will limit at this time to
just MVFR reaching ahn. VFR cigs should affect the remainder of
the taf sites through this afternoon. Could see some of this
persist into the overnight hours as well but will scale back to
scattered for now.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium on wind gusts.
High on remaining elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 82 62 79 55 / 20 10 5 0
Atlanta 88 67 81 58 / 20 10 5 0
Blairsville 77 57 74 50 / 20 20 5 0
Cartersville 90 66 82 57 / 20 10 5 0
Columbus 96 69 85 61 / 30 30 5 0
Gainesville 82 64 78 56 / 20 10 5 0
Macon 90 65 83 58 / 40 20 0 0
Rome 91 66 83 58 / 20 10 5 0
Peachtree City 91 66 82 57 / 30 20 5 0
Vidalia 89 63 84 62 / 50 30 0 0