Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 182336
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
736 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019/
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
no development of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain so far this afternoon tho seeing
enhanced mid level cloud and cumulus development further SW over southeast
Alabama and wc Georgia near Alabama state line. Could see isold convection fire
later this afternoon in area in between this area and cumulus/
stratocumulus field over eastern Georgia. After midnight, chances go down
As advertised previously, significantly drier/cooler air pushing
into tonight and thurs. 12z guidance dropped temps just a degree
or so more than previous runs. Other than some high clouds,
should be a beautiful day thurs.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
the long term period is expected to be fairly quiet and mostly
dry through the rest of the extended forecast. High pressure at
the surface that was more centered along the eastern coast is
expected to shift more over the area. Coupled with high pressure
aloft, the area is expected to remain dry through at least the
weekend, but will also allow for temperatures to begin to increase
back above seasonal norms by the weekend. Around Tuesday/
Wednesday, a front is expected to approach the area but models are
showing differences in moisture across the area. Leaned towards
the drier European model (ecmwf) for this forecast.
Temperatures Friday will be much closer to seasonal norms with highs
in the 70s in the mountains with low to mid 80s elsewhere. For the
weekend into next week, high temperatures will continue to trend
upward to the widespread 90s across much of the area by Monday,
about 7 to 12 degrees above average. Low temperatures Saturday
through Sunday will be just around average in the 50s in the
mountains up to low 60s elsewhere. For the first half of next week,
temperatures are expected to be above average, in the upper 60s.
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Bkn035-060
possible after 06z at ahn/atl area sites with clearing trend after
14-16z. An isolated shra/tsra cannot be ruled out this evening at
csg, but otherwise dry conditions are forecast. Winds will remain
east at 8-13kts with gusts 15-20 kts possible Thursday afternoon.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
high confidence on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 64 80 55 81 / 5 5 0 0
Atlanta 68 81 59 82 / 5 5 0 0
Blairsville 58 73 51 76 / 10 10 0 0
Cartersville 67 82 58 84 / 5 5 0 0
Columbus 70 85 62 86 / 20 5 0 0
Gainesville 65 78 57 81 / 5 5 0 0
Macon 66 83 58 85 / 10 0 0 0
Rome 66 83 59 84 / 5 5 0 0
Peachtree City 67 83 58 84 / 10 5 0 0
Vidalia 64 84 61 86 / 10 0 5 10