Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 190810
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
310 am EST Tue Nov 19 2019
Short term /today through Wednesday/...
Latest in a series of quick-moving short waves sweeps southeast into
the region today down the back side of the persistent eastern U.S.
Upper trough. As with the past couple of waves, not a whole lot of
moisture for this system to work with but enough light precipitation
has held on as the system pushes southeast out of the mid-
Mississippi Valley to include some slight chance pops across the far
north through the morning. Anything reaching the ground should be
very light. Clouds begin thinning out by this afternoon and evening
as the upper trough axis shifts east. Temperatures remain seasonal
through the period.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure will remain prevalent on
Thursday, bringing continued dry conditions and temperatures warming
into the 60s and 70s. An approaching cold front will initially
struggle to make southeastward progress as the ridge remains in
place. By late Thursday into Friday morning, a more potent trough
over the Great Lakes will be the initial impetus to begin to push
the front southeastward. An upper low over the Central Plains
will aid in the formation of a surface low along the front in the
arklatex region on Friday which will push the cold front eastward
toward the forecast area.
Models have come into much better agreement with the timing of the
front into our area. General consensus is that the front will push
into the state by Saturday morning as the surface low shifts
northeastward across Tennessee. Given this timing, shower chances
will initially begin to increase across the northwest corner of the
state as early as Friday afternoon and evening with widespread
showers gradually spreading southeastward across the area through
the day Saturday in association with the cold front. With forecast
instability continuing to be negligible, thunderstorms are not
expected. Rainfall totals will be highest across north Georgia with
forecast quantitative precipitation forecast from Friday into Saturday night over an inch in these
areas. Isolated totals approaching two inches will be possible in
the north Georgia mountains. Rainfall amounts will lessen to below a
half inch farther south into central Georgia.
Rain will taper off from northwest to southeast from Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night as the front clears the area. Sunday
will bring mostly sunny conditions with cooler temperatures behind
the front. Highs will revert back to 2-6 degrees below normal as
opposed to the above normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday.
Dry weather will persist at least into Monday.
VFR conditions are expected to predominate through the forecast
period. Will see an increase in mid-level clouds through the
overnight hours and Tuesday morning. Winds will be west to northwest
3-6kt, increasing to 7-10kt W/ gusts 15-20kt by 16-18z. Wind speeds
diminish to 3-6kt after 00z.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
Medium for skycover trends and timing.
High on all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 62 41 64 41 / 5 5 0 0
Atlanta 61 41 63 43 / 5 0 0 0
Blairsville 54 36 58 38 / 20 10 0 0
Cartersville 61 39 63 41 / 10 0 0 0
Columbus 66 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 59 40 63 41 / 5 5 0 0
Macon 64 42 66 42 / 5 0 0 0
Rome 61 39 63 40 / 20 0 0 0
Peachtree City 63 40 64 42 / 5 0 0 0
Vidalia 65 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0