Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 202348
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
748 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion. The short term forecast
remain in great shape overall, with precipitation associated with
the westward-moving wave across south Georgia staying out of the
forecast area. As such, only minor adjustments made based on the
Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019/
Short term /tonight through Saturday night/...
Weak mid/upper-level ridging persists through the period as surface
ridge slowly weakens and shifts south and east into the western
Atlantic. Still some indication of a weak wave moving west under the
the upper ridge into south Georgia. May see a few isolated light
showers approach the southeastern fringes of the area, but main
impacts will be a bit more cloud coverage. Temperatures slowly
climbing back up, but we should see morning lows staying near
seasonal normals the next two morning with afternoon highs creeping
back up to at or a bit above normal for Saturday. Still, with
relative low humidity, Saturday should remain a fairly comfortable
day with plenty of sunshine and tolerable temperatures.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
The long term period begins early Sunday with high pressure aloft as
well as at the surface. This synoptic setup will help to keep the
area dry over the next several days, but will also continue the
'well above average' temperature trend through next week. Models are
showing a weak frontal boundary pushing towards the area late on
Monday and moving into the area and stalling Tuesday, but there are
some model differences in the amount of available moisture. Overall,
the moisture is pretty limited for this frontal passage, especially
while crossing into the local cwa, but the GFS has a little more
moisture across the area compared to the European model (ecmwf). Have leaned towards
the drier solution for this forecast cycle which keeps a small area
of chance pops across far northwestern Georgia on Monday afternoon
and evening. After the frontal passage models begin to differ on
solutions across the area but, high pressure aloft looks to build
back into the area.
High temperatures through the extended forecast are expected to be
about 6 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms, with upper 80s to the
widespread 90s across much of the area. Low temperatures through the
extended will be increasing as well, around 5 to 13 degrees above
average, with 50s in the mountains and 60s elsewhere.
VFR conditions and minimal precipitation chances are expected to
continue through the taf period. It is possible that scattered low-
end VFR clouds and MVFR visibility restrictions could build in
across east-central Georgia in the early morning between 10-14z,
but they are not currently expected to impact any taf sites. East
winds at 5 kts or less overnight are anticipated to shift to southeast
and increase to 5-8 kts by 18z Saturday.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
high confidence on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 59 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 63 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 53 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 59 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 64 88 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 60 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 57 86 62 88 / 5 5 0 0
Rome 59 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 59 86 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 63 88 64 90 / 5 5 5 0