Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kfgf 142102 
afdfgf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Mid afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper level shortwave
trough propagating eastward from western sk this evening. This
strengthening, quick moving clipper system will bring widespread
light snow and rain across much of the region late tonight and
through Tuesday morning. Total additional quantitative precipitation forecast with this system is
expected to be less than a quarter inch and likely will be less than
a tenth of an inch for most locations. Precipitation type may vary
as either rain, snow, or some of each across the region with the
closer upper low overhead and wet bulb temperatures hovering around
the freezing mark. With soil temperatures remaining above freezing,
temperatures near the freezing mark, and the light nature of the
precipitation, expect snow accumulations to be less than 2 inches
and to be confined to grassy areas or on top of the current
lingering snow pack. Thus expect little to no impacts overnight.

After a weak cold frontal passage associated with the
aforementioned clipper system tonight, temperatures on Tuesday
will be slightly cooler in the mid 30s to lower 40s with a breezy
north wind. As the upper low remains in close proximity to the
region (mn/WI proximity) Tuesday night, expect cloud cover to
linger through Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A warming period is forecast thur-Sat as strong warm air advection
develops underneath ridging aloft. Snow-free areas within Minnesota
and southeastern North Dakota will warm the most getting well into
the 50s for highs, whereas snow covered areas will lag remaining in
the upper 40s, perhaps low 50s. This will promote continued melting
of snowpack even at night as strong warm air advection feeds warmer air over this
region. Additionally the likelihood of low clouds and perhaps fog
from warmer temps over a locally cooler snowpack should help eat
away at snowcover. This snow melt is expected to have an impact to
area rivers. See the Hydro section of this afd for more details.

A few small impulses and associated cool/cold fronts move through
the region as upstream ridging breaks down late this week. This
could bring periodic light rain or snow showers Friday through
Sunday, although details remain unclear on best areas for forcing
for ascent. It does look likely amounts should remain on the lighter
side as magnitude and residence time of forcing and moisture
availability is lacking.

Early to mid next week, a larger system develops out of the Central
Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. The majority of
this precipitation is forecast to remain away of the region to the
east and south. Still, precipitation is expected to reach at least
southern and far eastern areas of the County Warning Area Sunday through Monday.
Ensemble spread still suggests the possibility of steadier
precipitation to move deeper into our area, but again this chance is
low at the moment. It is too early to comment on amounts.
Temperatures this weekend into early next week look to remain on the
cooler side of normal given ample cloud cover.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Expect low VFR stratus (with pockets of MVFR ceilings) to
continue to progress eastward, mainly just affecting northwest Minnesota
terminals (ktvf and kbji) this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere,
will see a break in stratus with scattered cirrus this afternoon
and evening. A clipper system moves in late tonight through
Tuesday, bringing snow and deteriorating ceilings and visibility.
By 12z, expect IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility to prevail with
snow affecting most taf sites. Winds will remain mostly light and
variable today. As the cold front pushes through tonight, expect
winds to turn northwest, increasing to 10-20 kts sustained on
Tuesday morning.



&&

Hydrology...
issued at 400 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Unusually high precipitation amounts across the region combined with
recent heavy snowfall this fall have caused area river levels to
rise to unusually high levels for this time of year. The current
forecast calls for minor to moderate flooding along the mainstem Red
River and many of its tributaries. The exception to this is Oslo on
the mainstem Red River, which is now expected to reach major flood
stage this week. The inflow from the tributaries is contributing to
the higher river stages along the mainstem red, but river levels
are expected to crest lower than those that occurred during the
Spring 2019 flood.

The Minnesota tributaries are either near crest or receding as this
area received much less precipitation from the last storm. Releases
from Lake Bronson into the Two Rivers river continue as The Gates
remain full open. However...the Two Rivers river at Hallock appears
to be near crest at this time and is not expected to see further
increases.

More precipitation...in the form of snow...fell on the North Dakota
side during the last storm. Releases from baldhill dam will result
in increases along the Sheyenne river but backwater effects will see
the West Fargo diversion and Harwood approaching major flood stage
later this week. The Maple River at Mapleton is beginning to recede
back into minor flood stage and is forecast to continue dropping
through the period. A New River Flood Warning was issued for the
Goose River at Hillsboro...but levels are forecast to remain in
minor flood stage and steady out over the next few days.

Aside from a clipper system crossing the area this evening
accompanied by some light precipitation...the rest of the week will
see warming temperatures...and remain relatively dry giving rivers a
chance to recover.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations