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FXUS63 KFGF 131303

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
703 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Issued at 652 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Light snow is now confined areas south of a Wahpeton to Fergus 
Falls to Wadena line. Will see it continue to slide south and
should move out of the area by 10am. Flurries set for the
afternoon mainly across NW MN today.  


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

A weak short is quickly moving over the area this morning with int
the mean 500mb northwesterly flow aloft. This feature is bringing
some light snow to areas south of HWY 200 with SFC obs generally 
showing 2 to 4 mile visibility. As the weak 500mb Q-vector 
divergence moves south snow will move south of the SD/ND line by
mid morning. Areas that saw a few tenths of accumulation could 
have some localized travel issues during the commute this morning.

Today temps will be fairly steady as NW winds and 925mb cold air
advection offset the normal diurnal curve. Will see highs in the
low to mid 20s with some afternoon flurries possible. A quick 
temp fall is forecast after sunset with lows in the single digits 
for most. WAA with favorable SW winds at the surface will help 
temps Thursday afternoon rise into the 30s even with increased 
cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

A warmer period with temperatures near to above average. Daytime 
highs this next weekend into early next week may get into the 40s as 
warmer air moves into the region. With this warmer air though comes 
chances for more wintry precipitation. 

Thursday night and Friday... Warm air advection and upper level 
height rises will lead to a milder and quieter pattern these period. 
The passage of a weak cold front Friday could keep temperatures 
cooler with a chance for some snow flurries.

Saturday and Sunday... A surface low is expected to move across the 
Canadian Prairies this weekend as a short wave trough moves into the 
area. Some increased moisture will be present based on NAEFS 
percentile precipitable water being above the 90th percentile and 
GEFS members  having QPF. With the main forcing more likely to be
over southern Canada the best chances for precipitation will be 
near the international border.

Forecast model soundings do suggest that there will be a warm layer 
aloft while the lower levels remain below freezing. This suggests 
the chance for some mixed(snow/sleet/freezing rain) precipitation 
which could have an impact on travel this weekend. Confidence is 
still low on perception type at this point due to spread in model 
timing and differing pattern evolution in both deterministic and 
ensemble guidance.

Monday to Wednesday... Another system is expected to impact the 
Northern Plains early next week. Ensemble spread remains high so 
there is still much uncertainty in what impacts could occur. What 
does appear likely is a continuation of the milder temperatures with 
near to above average temperatures and a large scale signal for 
another system moving across the Northern Plains or Canadian 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

VFR and MVFR CIGs expected today as winds turn to the NW at 10 to
15kt with a few gusts possible 20kt as cold front pushes south
this morning. Will see MVFR CIGs more likely at GFK, TVF and BJI
into the afternoon clearing west to east this afternoon and
evening. Expecting VFR overnight.




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