Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kfgf 240429 
afdfgf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1129 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Update...
issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

No updates needed.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

The beginning of the short term begins with very settled weather
caused by a surface high pressure system to the south. Scattered
cumulus clouds have progressed from the west ahead of some high-
based radar echoes in central North Dakota. These echoes are not
producing precipitation that is reaching the ground. However, the
scattered clouds, combined with light southerly winds, will
diminish any chances of fog development. Temperatures will also
remain mild in the mid 50s to low 60s.

For Wednesday, the southerly winds associated with the high pressure
system are expected to increase, which will lead to increased
heating. Areas near and west of the Red River could see highs
reach the mid to upper 80s due to mixing further to the west.
Expect to see cloud cover increase from the west in the evening
ahead of isolated rain chances late Wednesday night. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible within the activity, but any
severe potential is further to west towards Bismark. Cloud cover
and warm air advection will keep overnight lows very mild in the
mid to upper 60s for most areas.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

A shortwave trough will propagate in from southwestern Canada
Wednesday afternoon and provide considerable 500-hpa DCVA.
Combined with upper-level diffluence/divergence, a synoptically
supportive environment could lead way to a few scattered
thunderstorms in the southwest portion of the County Warning Area. The associated
surface cold front looks to pass through the Red River valley
region in the evening on Thursday, providing greater chances for
some scattered showers and T- storms throughout the southeastern
portion of the County Warning Area. Some of these storms could be stronger or even
severe, with the primary threats including strong winds and large
hail. While not likely, there is the possibility of a tornado
with any isolated, discrete supercells that are able to form.

The next chance for storms will be on Sunday as another shortwave
trough moving east along the Canada/Montana border will provide
ample 850-hpa warm air advection. An associated surface cold front looks to pool
moisture in the southeastern portion of the County Warning Area. Combined, these
will create conditions favorable for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Behind the aforementioned cold frontal passage, conditions to begin
the start of the work week next week look considerably cooler and
drier.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Kept with the ideas from the 00z set of tafs. Biggest thing is
increasing south winds by afternoon for kgfk/kfar/kdvl. Otherwise
no other issues seen at this point.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations