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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Update...
issued at 1139 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Tweeked sky a bit more... last of the clear area in far southeast fcst
area is seeing clouds moving in. Rest of the fcst area cloudy. New
area of clouds moving southeast thru dvl basin, Harvey area and moving
southeast. Therefore likely a cloudy night for most. Low temps
seemed a bit cool so raised a tad.

&&

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 259 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Lots of cumuliform/cellular clouds along and east of the Red River
valley this afternoon. Radar continues to show more activity over
The Arrowhead of Minnesota, but there are a few spots of drizzle
or sprinkles across this forecast area. This potential will continue into
tonight as well, although tonight it could mix back with some very
light snow at times. Overall, continue to expect no impacts from
with this. Biggest thing tonight will be whether it may clear out
in spots. If it does, fog or a quick temperature drop could be
expected, especially in areas with deep snow. Monday looks to be a
quiet day, with light winds. Again, the question is whether any
areas may see a little sun. Models showing a potential for
decreasing clouds across the southern fa, with highs reaching
back into the low 40s. Other areas will be cooler, as there is
still a lot of snow to melt.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 259 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

The next chance for rain and snow arrives on Monday night with an
Alberta clipper moving across the northern plains. With temperatures
near freezing both at the surface and the lower levels of the
atmosphere there could be a variety of precipitation types. Surface
temperatures will remain above freezing during the periods that
forecast soundings are warm enough to suggest that rain will fall.

Behind the clipper some upper level ridging and zonal flow should
set up a period of calmer weather from Wednesday through Friday.
This will also be a period where temperatures are expected to warm
up with warm air advection advecting warmer air from the south. This
could bring some of the non-snow covered areas back up to around
normal temperatures by Friday. Areas with snow will be warmer than
the earlier part of the week, but how much warmer depends on how
much the snow pack ripens and melts this week.

More uncertainty enters the forecast for next weekend as the next
system moves up into the northern plains/upper Midwest. Models are
still all over the place on the track and strength of this system so
little is certain at this time on what impacts could occur with
it.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1139 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Clouds to hold thru Monday morning, but cloud bases are a variety
of MVFR and VFR. There is more lower end VFR than MVFR out there
but site sill likely go back and forth thru Mon am. Hard to time.

&&

Hydrology...
issued at 1030 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

The current forecast calls for minor to moderate flooding along
the mainstem Red River and many of its tributaries, with a bump to
major just now for the forecast point at Oslo. The Minnesota side
is featuring points that are near crest or even falling, as this
area received much less snow which won't have to melt. A little
more fluid and volatile on the North Dakota side of the red :
mostly snow, and a lot of it in some areas, to have to melt. To
accomodate, baldhill is opening wider and releasing, and this is
driving up river stages at points on the Sheyenne. The forecast
does feature a warmup, but not for several days, so at least the
current snowmelt process looks like it will behave favorably.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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