Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kfgf 151252
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 am CST sun Dec 15 2019
issued at 647 am CST sun Dec 15 2019
Light snow has began at fgf and latest pop adjustments seem on
track. Increased far western temps as Carrington has reached 10
deg. May need further adjustments for Valley City-Devils Lake
region. Warm advection snow showers crossing I-94 in Central
Valley with no significant visibility restrictions on area web
cams. Overall forecast on track.
Update issued at 605 am CST sun Dec 15 2019
Clouds have crossed the northern valley and increased temperatures
across northeastern North Dakota, ending advisory level wind
chills. Warm advection light snow move east along an axis from
Northwood to Valley City will continue on into west central Minnesota
this morning, leaving a dusting to a few tenths of light snow
accumulation. Minimal impacts expected. Increased pops to account
for higher confidence in location of the light snow.
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 334 am CST sun Dec 15 2019
The most significant impacts for this short term forecast will be
in the near term, with wind chills currently in the 25 to 40
below range across the northern valley and northwest Minnesota.
Mid- level clouds continue to advect across the advisory area,
with temperatures rapidly increasing under the clouded areas.
Thus, significant winter impacts for the short term will be short
lived and limited to frigid wind chills through mid-morning
Warm advection is generating some very light snow west of the Red
River valley, and this will move across the area through about
21z this afternoon. The warm advection will result in afternoon
highs ranging from about 5 to 15 degrees today and tomorrow as
southerly winds pick up this morning and turn westerly throughout
the day. A surface trough does move across the northeast overnight
tonight, and some light snow is possible across the far northern
valley into northwest Minnesota. Little accumulation is expected
and impacts will be minimal. Today's light snow may be sufficient
for a dusting to a couple of tenths of an inch, but again minimal
impacts on Sunday travel plans.
Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 334 am CST sun Dec 15 2019
Minimal impacts expected in the long range with a relatively quiet
period as model agreement and ensembles continue to show little
forcing and quantitative precipitation forecast for the week into next weekend. Storm track remains
south of the region through the middle of the week with northwest flow
aloft persisting. This will bring another Arctic airmass into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday which should be the coldest
morning of the week as lows fall into the teens below.
For Wednesday into the weekend flow aloft becomes more zonal and
moderating temperatures are expected with daytime highs climbing in
the low 20s by the end of the week with lows above zero. The only
times that look favorable for light snowfall will be during the warm
advection Wednesday and again possibly into the weekend. Any
snowfall will be light with minimal impacts.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 605 am CST sun Dec 15 2019
A few early ice crystals temporarily brought MVFR vsbys to bji,
but the arrival of mid-level clouds has brought vsby back to
unrestricted. Mid-level clouds across region this aftn with far
going down to MVFR mid-day as -shsn moves across, returning to VFR
later in aftn. VFR with some areas of MVFR overnight for most
sites, worst conds at bji which could see some IFR early tomorrow
morning before west to east clearing near end of 12z taf period.
Minnesota...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 am CST this morning for mnz001-004-