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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
632 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

issued at 633 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

A band of precipitation (called the Air Force base and a
rain/snow mix is reported) has developed just west of the river.
Typically these bands set up and last for a 2-3 hours before
dissipating. Updated the forecast to account for this activity.
Rain/drizzle continue east of the valley. Winds remain near
advisory criteria. Forecast is on track for the most part. Any
snow is not expected to accumulate given light rates and warm
ground temperatures.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 230 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Rainfall and wind speeds the main concerns. Deformation forcing is
set up east of the Red River valley and will continue through at
least the morning hours, gradually shifting east. Guidance appears
to have a decent handle on the current situation. With current dew
point values in the mid-upper 30s where precipitation is occuring, do
not expect low level thermal profile to support snow. Winds
continue to gradually diminish, but should remain near advisory
level criteria within the Red River valley through the morning
hours (valley enhanced).

As the upper low propagates into the northern Great Lakes and
eventually Hudson Bay, anticipate clearing to gradually shift
eastward. With that said, additional shortwaves rotating around
the main upper low will likely bring continued clouds to areas
along and east of the valley (guidance indicates a stronger wave
for tonight). So, persistence might be the best forecast for sky
until sometime Wednesday morning or later.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 230 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

There is general agreement with current guidance that this will
be a mainly dry period for the forecast area. Northwest flow aloft
develops with ridging building into the region through Friday.
This should lead to a slight warming trend. Storm track will
remain north of the international border, with a cold fropa around
Saturday. Not quite sure on any impacts that would result from
this feature. A few ensemble members indicate a banded snow event,
but there are a lot of possibilities and no clear signal. Given
the synoptic pattern and available moisture would think that any
precipitation would be very light. With the cold air advection,
northwest winds will be gusty to some extent. Later part of the
weekend into the next work week will cooler.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 633 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Variety of conditions across the region this morning. Clear sky
west of the valley transitions to MVFR within the valley and
IFR/LIFR east of the valley. Given the current pattern,
persistence is likely the best forecast through into Wednesday
morning. Guidance more or less agrees with this assessment. There
may be a brief period of improved conditions within the valley by
this afternoon or evening, but another upper wave should return
MVFR cigs by midnight. Winds will gradually diminish through the
day, but will remain gusty into the afternoon hours.


issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Flooding continues on from record rainfall over the past 30 days.
Sheyenne river basin has seen less rainfall over the past 24hours
than previously forecast and depending on how much snowmelt with
rainfall combined gets into baldhill dam reductions in the
forecast will be possible over the next 24hours. With respect to
the mainstem Red River the crest of the fall flood wave is
approaching the northern valley with Drayton and Pembina seeing
rises into moderate flood stages. Flooding has ended at Crookston.

Rainfall this evening and overnight tonight will not impact area
river with significant rises as the highest amounts will be east
of the Red River basin.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ndz008-016-

Minnesota...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for mnz001>004-007-



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