Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kfgz 181702
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
1002 am MST sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis...expect mostly dry and warm weather into next week.
Temperatures will peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a possible
moisture increase and slight cooling trend later in the week.
short-term forecast of continued dry and toasty conditions remains
on track. No major updates are likely this morning.
Previous discussion /338 am MST/...dry conditions are expected to
continue through the weekend and into the middle of next week.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal values today, but will
begin climbing back to well above normal temperatures through the
first part of next week as a large scale high pressure system
sets up over the western United States.
Models continue to hit at the possibility for some moisture to
make its way into northern Arizona by next weekend. At the
moment some of the operational models have started limiting
showers to the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and White
Mountains. However confidence that far out into the forecast
period is low at this time. One of the big unknowns with this
potential surge of moisture is a tropical disturbance off the
coast of Guatemala. Depending on development of this disturbance
and its possible track, additional moisture may flow into the
region by late next week.
Aviation...for the 18z package...expect VFR conditions for the 24
hour taf forecast period. Sfc winds sw5-15kts from 18z-01z.
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...expect dry and warm conditions today and Monday,
with generally light southwest winds.
Tuesday through Thursday...above average temperatures and
continued mainly dry conditons are expected through this period.
Limited moisture returns to the White Mountains by Wednesday,
possibly pushing a bit farther north and west by Thursday.