Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kgid 150522 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1122 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 230 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Quiet weather to end the work week...

Temps today have over-achieved with most locations averaging in
the 50s early this afternoon, aided by full insolation.

Patternwise...weak ridging across the Central Plains will give
way to a zonal pattern heading into Friday, with warmer air
advecting east of The Rockies. Temps tonight will be right around
climatology in the 25-30 degree range, then on Friday we'll tap
into the warmer airmass with aftn temps forecast to reach the
upper 50s/low 60s (above seasonal normal highs). The warmer temps
Friday will be accompanied by increasing southerly winds in a
tightening pressure gradient in between a deepening surface trough
along the High Plains and departing surface ridge to the east in
Missouri. Model forecast soundings suggest the potential for wind
gusts around 25 mph by mid aftn.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 230 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

An open, progressive upper trough will translate across the
interior Continental U.S. Over the weekend, with an associated cold front
crossing our local area Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the boundary Saturday, central neb/Kansas should see a nice day with
high temps in the 50s/low 60s. The forecast remains precipitation
free with the cold frontal passage due to limited moisture
availability, but northwest winds will ramp up behind the boundary. Then
on Sunday, wind speeds will decrease as they transition to the
west and the pressure gradient weakens. Overall temps Sunday are
forecast to be roughly 5f cooler compared to Saturday.

Through the middle of next week, the weather is still looking dry
with mild fall temperatures as an upper ridge over the western Continental U.S.
Migrates eastward. Towards the Thursday time frame, flow aloft
transitions southwest ahead of a deepening low pressure system in
Southern California. Small chances for light precip return to the forecast
Wednesday night/Thursday as this system approaches.


Aviation...(for the 06z kgri/kear tafs through 06z friday)
issued at 1120 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Only high clouds
around 20kft are expected at times on Friday.

South winds will become breezy late Friday morning through the
afternoon. Gusts to around 25kts are likely at times. Winds will
then decrease again Friday evening.


Gid watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations