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000 
FXUS63 KGID 112057
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
257 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

High clouds are increasing across the region ahead of a weak 
shortwave that will drop southeastward across the area tonight. 
With the cloud cover, temperatures have stayed a bit cooler than 
forecast for many places today. Nevertheless its still noticably 
warmer than yesterday. 

Later tonight, the surface trough associated with the shortwave
will move through the forecast area. This will shift winds to the
west and northwest by Thursday morning. Some low stratus could 
also develop ahead of this feature, primarily in areas southeast 
of the tri-cities. This should be short-lived though, and skies 
should become mostly clear by mid morning on Thursday. 

These clear skies and light surface winds will make for a relatively 
pleasant day on Thursday. High temperatures are expected to range 
from the 40s across most of Nebraska to the mid 50s in portions of 
Kansas. Another weak wave is forecast to move through Thursday 
night. Like with the previous wave, this will lead to increased 
clouds but no precipitation is anticipated. 

The gradual warmup continues on Friday. Highs are forecast to reach 
the upper 40s to mid 50s across most of the area, but this is a 
little uncertain due to lingering cloud cover. 

By Friday evening, a slightly stronger clipper-style wave will move 
into the area. This will bring a punch of colder air and possibly 
some light rain quickly changing to snow. Models, particularly the 
NAM, show a signal for banded snowfall with localized amounts over 
one inch possible. That said, forecasting the exact location of the 
band is nearly impossible at this point. Therefore, the latest 
forecast has introduced a fairly broad swath of less than 1 inch of 
snowfall. Overall, impacts shouldn't be significant, but some 
localized areas could see slick and snow covered roads Friday night 
into Saturday morning. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Behind this system, we will see much colder weather return for 
the weekend. Saturday's highs will only be in the 20s to mid 30s.

On Sunday, a deeper and slower-moving trough will traverse the 
region, likely bringing measurable snow to portions of the area 
Sunday into Sunday night. The location of this snow remains 
uncertain, though. Ensemble guidance favors portions of Kansas for
the heaviest snow, but some deterministic model runs continue to 
show snow accumulation as far north as the Nebraska sandhills. 
Hopefully model agreement improves over the next day or two. 

Dry conditions are expected to return for the beginning of next 
week. It will remain chilly on Monday, but long-range ensembles 
agree that we will see an overall warming trend for the middle to 
latter half of the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
this forecast period. 

High clouds will gradually increase this afternoon and evening.
Winds will shift from southeast to northwest overnight tonight as
a front moves through. This shifting winds at the  surface and 
aloft will likely lead to marginal LLWS criteria. 

There is some potential for low stratus ahead of the front, but
the overall consensus is that this will remain southeast of KGRI
and KEAR. 


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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