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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Been a dry but breezy day across the County Warning Area today, skies had been
mostly clear but in the past hour or so have had cumulus expand in
coverage. Upper air and satellite data show the region continuing
to be under northwesterly flow, set up between the large low
pressure system spinning over the western Great Lakes region and
broad ridging over the western Continental U.S.. at the surface, the County Warning Area sits
between high pressure over the Southern Plains and low pressure
accompanying that upper low over the Great Lakes. The resultant
northwesterly winds have been sustained in the 15-25 miles per hour range for
most...with gusts mainly 25-35 mph, though an occasional gust has
been closer to 40 miles per hour.

Main change to the forecast was to add a mention of sprinkles to
northern portions of the County Warning Area. Models are in good agreement showing
an upper level shortwave disturbance making its way southeastward
tonight out of Canada and through the nrn rockies...with it still
just off to the northwest of the County Warning Area at 12z Wed. Some models show
there being enough subtle forcing with a weaker wave out ahead of
the main disturbance and an jet streak moving through the region
that a little precip could develop. Debated putting it in, as not
all models are showing qpf, but did so after collab with northern
neighbors. Didn't make any notable changes to lows tonight,
ranging from the mid 30s north to lower 40s south...but am
concerned sky cover could keep some locations from dropping as low
as currently forecast.

Looking to the daytime hours tomorrow, upper level flow across the
area isn't cut and dry, as the main upper level disturbance (which
is still just to our west) is digging a little bit to the south.
The daytime/evening hours are currently still dry, but
confidence in that isn't the highest...concerned there could be
some light precip somewhere, just not confidence enough in any
particular location to mention any pops. Thinking that skies will
be at least partly cloudy through the day, and a reinforcing shot
of northwest winds looks to accompanying a sfc front pushed through the
area tonight. Expecting speeds again in the 15-25 miles per hour range.
Forecast highs for Wed was a blend, with mid 50s north to mid 60s
south.

The main upper wave starts making more an eastward push Wed night
into Thursday, finally clear the County Warning Area to the east thurs evening.
Precipitation chances with its passage are not high, confined to
the far southern portions of the County Warning Area...with the best chances
being further south into the srn plains. Only have 20 pops going
in the forecast, some models suggest even that's too much. A
cooler airmass builds into the region for Thursday, and forecast
highs are only in the upper 40s for most locations.

Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

The forecast remains a dry one as we get into the last day of the
work week and the upcoming weekend. There are some notable
differences between models with the upper level pattern on Friday,
the GFS keeps this latest system pretty open and progressive,
building in ridging in its wake...the European model (ecmwf) develops a closed low
over the srn plains thurs night/Friday...keeping it around to our
south-southeast well into Saturday. Both keep the area dry, but lowers
confidence some with other elements. Through Sunday, focus turns
back to the west, as another upper level disturbance makes its way
through The Rockies, bringing southwesterly flow to the Central
Plains. Differences between models remain notable as we get into
the start of the next work week. The differences are with whether
a slower, strengthening system develops, bringing pretty
widespread precip chances, mainly Mon night-tues night...or the
pattern remains fairly open, with little precip overall. Lot of
things to Iron out in the coming days.

As far as temperatures go, forecast highs rebound back into the
50s/near 60 for Friday and widespread 60s for Saturday, before
falling back into mainly 40s for sun/Mon.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z kgri/kear tafs through 00z wednesday)
issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Cloud
cover is increasing this evening and expected to be broken
throughout the overnight hours. Winds will be light overnight and
switching to the northwest. With daytime mixing, northwest winds
will again be breezy with gusts to 25-30kts.

&&

Gid watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

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