Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kgjt 142023 
afdgjt

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
223 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Short term...(tonight through Tuesday night)
issued at 212 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

The forecast is on track as a dry trough moves across the
forecast area today. The atmosphere is quite dry so precipitation
is not expected with this system. Deeper mixing will allow gusty
winds to develop this afternoon into the early evening hours, leading
to fire weather concerns today as detailed in the fire weather
discussion below, before diminishing this evening. Another dry
and warm day is in store for Tuesday as a ridge builds over the
intermountain west.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 212 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Dry and warm conditions will remain in place through Thursday as
the ridge of high pressure moves east of The Rockies by midweek.
The pattern becomes amplified as the next system moves into the
Great Basin on Thursday. Southwest winds are expected to increase
on Thursday which will result in heightened fire weather concerns.
Models are indicating two separate systems moving through the area in
the long term. The first system will move through late Thursday
into Friday with the best focus across the north. Model consensus
shows a lull in activity on Saturday with another system moving
through the forecast area late Saturday into early Monday with the
best focus across the northern half of the forecast area, with
lesser impacts for the southern mountains. Current forecast
trends show the potential for accumulating snow across the higher
elevations with the first wave and more widespread snow with the
second system. High temperatures will be running much above normal
Wednesday and Thursday with much colder temperatures returning by
Friday and continuing through the weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1123 am MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Gusty afternoon and early evening winds are expected today with
wind gusts up to 30 kts along and north of Interstate 70.
Otherwise, VFR pattern remains in place through Tuesday afternoon.



&&

Fire weather...
issued at 1242 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A dry trough will move through the region later today and while
no precipitation is expected with this passage, gusty winds will
develop this afternoon. Fuels remain critical and with dry
conditions in place, critical fire weather conditions will exist
across portions of northwest Colorado. Red flag warnings remain in
effect for Colorado fire zones 200 and 202 and also Colorado fire
zone 201 below 8500 feet. Fire weather concerns return on Thursday
as southwest winds increase ahead of the next system.

&&

Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...
Colorado...red flag warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for coz200>202.

Utah...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations