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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
623 PM MDT sun Jun 16 2019

Short term...(tonight through Monday night)
issued at 235 PM MDT sun Jun 16 2019

A weak trough over California will slowly move east through
Monday. A combination of weak dynamics and daytime heating is
allowing a broader area of convection to develop over Utah this
afternoon. Models are showing this area to weaken as it moves
east later this afternoon and this evening. However, gusty outflow
winds to 50 mph, with some locally higher gusts are possible into
the evening hours as this activity moves east across the forecast
area. Otherwise, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to diminish later this evening.

Models are showing an uptick in shower activity on Monday as the
trough over the southwestern US approaches the forecast area. Precipitable water
values will approach an inch in some locations as the shortwave
moves closer to area. Gusty outflow winds will be an impact at the
onset of shower activity on Monday, with brief heavy rain and
small hail possible in the stronger storms. High temperatures will
be below normal on Monday. Shower activity is expected to linger
into the evening hours before diminishing overnight.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 235 PM MDT sun Jun 16 2019

A shortwave in the northwest flow will kick off another round of
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area on Tuesday. Precipitable water
values will remain around 0.75 inches and with good instability
and lift, some of the stronger embedded storms may produce
locally heavy rain. Conditions will improve by Tuesday night as
drier northwest flow moves across the area on Wednesday into
Thursday. Model confidence decreases by Thursday as a Pacific
storm moves across the northern states. Southwest winds will
increase on Thursday and Friday as a southwest gradient develops
over the area, south of this storm system, increasing fire
weather concerns for the latter part of the workweek. Models also
increase diurnally-driven late-day showers and thunderstorms into
the weekend as the Pacific storm moves east across the northern
rockies. The best focus for this scattered shower activity will
be over the mountains and north. Temperatures will return to near
normal by Wednesday and continue into the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 617 PM MDT sun Jun 16 2019

Ongoing storms continue to generally move from west to east with
gusty winds in excess of 30 kts resulting in temporarily reduced
visibilities in the vacinity of some taf sites. These storms
should decrease in coverage and intensity by 03z. Otherwise,
mostly cloudy skies will prevail tonight. Showers will be more
widespread by 18z Monday.


issued at 235 PM MDT sun Jun 16 2019

Warm temperatures and mild nights will allow the high elevation
snow pack to continue melting at an accelerated rate. Rivers and
streams continue to run fast and high. Be sure to check
www.Weather.Gov/gjt for the latest advisories and warnings.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


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