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FXUS65 KGJT 232057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

A high-amplitude mid-level ridge axis remains over western 
Colorado. Convection is ongoing this afternoon with showers and
storms initiating off the higher terrain and slowly rotating
around the high pressure center. A weak and fairly short-lived 
monsoonal surge will maintain increasing moisture through the 
short-term promoting more widespread wetting rain over the next 
couple afternoons/evenings. A few storms could produce some small
hail in addition to gusty winds. Preciptable Water values just 
under 1 inch (particularly in southern portions of the forecast 
area) will also promote heavy rainfall. Taking into account the 
slow movement of these storms, localized flooding concerns will 
increase with any locations that experience continued thunderstorm

A low pressure system currently off the Pacific
Northwest Coast is forecast to move east just north of the 
Canadian/CONUS border. This will force our high pressure southward
beginning Wednesday afternoon and allow for moisture to wrap
around the northern side of the high pressure. This increased
cloud cover and convection will keep temperatures a little cooler
than the past several days.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

The aformentioned southwest movement of the high pressure center
will allow for an increased deeper fetch of moisture to move over
the area Thursday with continued convection through Saturday. On
Sunday, this moisture moves southeast as our high pressure wanders
back into the four corners keeping us under northwest flow. This
will clear out much of the clouds and precipitation (at least for
a few days) except for a couple high elevation-based
storms...mainly over southern portions of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
during the afternoon. Outflow winds may impact TAF sites from
thunderstorms in the area with gusts as high as 40 MPH. There is
only a slight chance that KTEX, KGUC, KDRO and KASE will
experience rain from thunderstorms. Otherwise, look forward to VFR
conditions and light terrain driven winds with CIGS remaining
above ILS breakpoints.




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