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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
330 am EDT sun Jun 16 2019

Latest update...
synopsis/discussion/marine

Synopsis...
issued at 330 am EDT sun Jun 16 2019

* stuck in a Spring like pattern today and tonight.

* Scattered showers today.

* Zonal pattern with quiet weather from tonight through tues night.

* Next chances for rain Wed into thurs and again next weekend.

&&

Discussion...(today through next saturday)
issued at 330 am EDT sun Jun 16 2019

The bottom line up front is that we are not expecting any
significant weather system through the course of the next 7 days.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal today, but gradually warm
back towards normal this week. Highs in the 70s look common. The
main chances for precipitation will come today, Wednesday into
Thursday and out towards next Saturday.

Honing in on the precipitation time frames of concern...we expect
some scattered showers today associated with a shortwave moving
through the southern Great Lakes. There are a couple convective
looking vort maximums, one moving through northern Indiana and
another over southern Wisconsin. Both of these shortwaves will
likely contribute to scattered showers today from early this morning
through about mid afternoon. Chances for precipitation look to fall
somewhere in the 30-50 pct range. It will be very Spring like today
as we will be stuck in stratus and light fog with an easterly wind.
Not very mid June like at all. For those that are not a fan of
Summer heat today is your day.

Dry weather is expected from tonight into Tuesday night. Our next
chance for rain looks to be out in the Wednesday through Thursday
time frame as all of the models are bringing a shortwave through the
Great Lakes during this time frame. Both the Euro and the GFS are
consistent in bring a fairly wound up low by mid Summer standards
through the southern Great Lakes. We have 30-40 pct chances for rain
showers in the forecast at this point, but can see that we may need
to raise these with time going forward.

After Thursday, the GFS and the Euro have differing solutions with
the GFS holding the low longer in the Great Lakes and the Euro being
way more progressive. Like the Euro here more as the zonal upper
flow should yield a more progressive solution.

A plains trough develops towards the end of the 7 day forecast with
chances for showers pushing back into the area on Saturday after a
period of shortwave ridging on Friday.

Best chances for rain look to be Wednesday night into Thursday and
again on Saturday. Otherwise pretty quiet weather.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 208 am EDT sun Jun 16 2019

The Spring like pattern of low clouds, fog and scattered showers
will continue through this taf period of 06z to 06z. A frontal
boundary will be situated to our south both today and tonight
which will place lower Michigan in the cool east and northeast
flow which will be characterized by low clouds.

Conditions will vary from LIFR this morning along I-94 to MVFR at
kmkg. These conditions will be fairly stagnant, although there
should be some improvement along I-94 to IFR. Bottom line,
aviation conditions will not be VFR at all the next 24 hours. Some
scattered showers will work through the taf sites from around
daybreak through mid afternoon.

Winds will remain out of the east and northeast at 5-15 knots.

&&

Marine...
issued at 330 am EDT sun Jun 16 2019

Webcams are not showing much in the way of fog anymore and we have
decided to drop the marine dense fog advisory. Not out of the realm
of possibilities to see some fog across our southern zones as dew
points remain up there a bit today, but thinking the easterly winds
will keep the fog from becoming dense.

Fairly quiet marine conditions then for the next few days in a light
wind regime. Not expecting any marine headlines today through
Tuesday with waves of 2 feet or less.

&&

GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
Lm...none.

&&

$$

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