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FXUS62 KGSP 201737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
137 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Dry high pressure will persist over the region today through the 
weekend, with temperatures gradually warming. A cold front will 
cross the region from the northwest early next week, but with 
limited moisture. Dry and warm high pressure will return for the 
rest of next of next week.


As of 130 PM EDT Friday: Mostly sunny skies expected through the 
rest of the day with just a few passing mid-level cumulus through 
the rest of the afternoon. The only place with any advertised pop is 
the Smokies, where some limited moisture may allow a couple showers 
to develop this afternoon. A dry surface high centered over the 
eastern Carolinas will keep conditions pleasant through the rest of 
today, with high maxing out near 80 in the Upstate/Piedmont and the 
mid 70s elsewhere. 

An upper ridge will amplify over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS 
tomorrow, and though we'll stay dry, temperatures will being to 
rebound. Max temps will be a couple degrees above average, with min 
temps near normal. Some patchy fog may develop in the mountains 
again tomorrow morning, but otherwise sunny skies are expected 
through the rest of the day.


As of 200 am EDT Friday: A 592 dm 500 mb ridge will dominate the 
southeast over the weekend, with surface high pressure over the 
eastern seaboard centered near the NC Outer Banks. Very dry profiles 
will continue over the region, with temperatures steadily rebounding 
to 5 to 8 degrees above climatology by Sunday afternoon.


As of 200 am EDT Friday: The southeast ridge will flatten on Monday 
as a closed low pressure system deepens over the Great Lakes. An 
associated cold front will move from the Ohio Valley to the 
Appalachians, but with gradually diminishing moisture along the 
boundary Monday into Monday night. Will limit PoPs along the 
southern Appalachians to slight chance with the fropa.

The Great Lakes system will sweep quickly eastward across New 
England on Tuesday, with dry northwest flow resulting across the 
southern Appalachians and surrounding areas. A zonal flow pattern 
will then set up by midweek before heights rebuild over the South on 
Thursday downstream from a plains system. The returning heat and 
modest instability could yield isolated ridgetop convection on 
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Temperatures will remain well 
above climatology through the week.


At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry high pressure will keep almost all sites 
VFR through the TAF period. The exception will be KAVL, where 
guidance is hinting at some low stratus development and potential 
valley fog development again in the morning hours tomorrow. Have 
reflected this with a TEMPO in the going TAF. Winds at all sites 
will be very light and generally VRB for tonight, remaining light 
tomorrow and gaining a generally southerly component.

Outlook: Patchy mountain valley fog will possible each morning for 
the next week. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z 
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     Med   68%     
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:





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