Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxpq60 pgum 082050
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service tiyan GU
650 am chst Tue Apr 9 2019
satellite and radar show generally shower and cloud-free conditions
across the marianas with the exception of a few low-level clouds and
thin cirrus. A couple altimeter passes over the islands show seas
right around 4 feet.
little change is expected the next couple of weeks as a very dry
trade-wind pattern remains entrenched over the marianas. GFS and
European model (ecmwf) still show a weak shear line stalling near anatahan later this
week, thus have modified the gridded forecast to indicate higher pops
and cloud cover north of Saipan, but this ultimately has no impact on
the local forecasts. Fire danger will continue to climb but winds
will remain too weak such that rapidly spreading fires are not
expected in the next week or so. Similarly, combined seas will see
little change the next week, hovering between 4 and 5 feet into next
week. A small north swell will build in later this week.
the main feature in eastern micronesia is an area of numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms being caused by trade-wind convergence in
the low levels and upper-level divergence. It is currently over
Kosrae and expected to move slowly westward. As a result, Majuro will
not see any increased activity, and this week looks rather dry for
them and most of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, except maybe
for the southernmost atolls. The showers for Kosrae will peak today.
They should trend toward isolated then stay that way for the rest of
this week. Meanwhile at Pohnpei, the majority of the showers should
pass to the south. At this time, kept the showers isolated, just
introduced thunderstorms also at what should be the peak activity.
Scattered showers are by no means out of the question though.
Winds are expected to stay at or below 20 knots all this week. Seas
are expected to be at or below 8 feet. Therefore, other than a
possible stray lightning strike, no weather related hazards are
foreseen this week in eastern micronesia.
the main weather feature in western micronesia was a near-equatorial
trough, however this has pretty much dissipated over the last 12 to
24 hours. During the second half of the week, Chuuk could get swiped
by the north edge of the disturbance currently near Kosrae. Added
isolated thunderstorms to the isolated showers, similar to Pohnpei.
Koror and Yap should just see isolated showers through the forecast
Winds are expected to stay at or below 20 knots for Chuuk and 15
knots for Yap and Koror. Seas are expected to stay at or below 7
feet. So, other than the possible odd lightning strike at Chuuk, no
weather related hazards are anticipated this week in western