Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
928 am EST Wed Dec 11 2019
today will feature clearing skies but cold temperatures, with
highs right around the freezing mark in many areas. An active
weather pattern looks to continue this weekend with low pressure
moving up the coast delivering a chance of heavy rainfall
perhaps with a brief period of mixed precipitation at the
start. Windy and cold conditions will likely follow in the wake
of the low for Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system
will approach from Monday night and Tuesday and that one may
contain more wintry precipitation.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
9am update... minor adjustments for current temps and pop
trends. Snow is continuing to move offshore.
645 am update...little change to the going forecast. Any snow
on the immediate coast will move offshore within by 8 am.
A weak wave of low pressure moving south of the forecast area
this morning will continue to spread light snow across
southeastern zones through about 14z with around an inch of
accumulation expected. Slippery conditions are possible across
the forecast area this morning owing to the light snow in
southeastern zones or the freezing of the earlier rainfall
elsewhere. Otherwise, clearing skies are expected to occur today
with cold temperatures, topping out in the mid 20s to lower 30s
across the forecast area.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
a short wave trough approaching late this afternoon in
association with a surface cold front will likely produce enough
forcing for snow showers and squalls this evening across
northwestern zones this evening, with the best chances being in
Grafton and Coos counties. However, one or two squalls may work
east of the mountains by late evening. A period of gusty winds
are possible later this evening into the overnight hours in the
wake of the cold front.
High pressure will center overhead later Wednesday night and
Thursday providing for fair and cold weather.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
a ribbon of vorticity will lift out of the forecast area
Thursday morning, replaced by zonal and eventually SW flow by
the weekend. The next system of consequence will begin to move
up the eastern Seaboard and into the forecast area Saturday
morning. This cutter system is progged to stay to our west as it
lifts north, bringing predominantly rain to the area as we stay
in the warm sector for much of the time.
In the dailies, Thursday night into Friday morning has been
trending warmer with each run, and accounting for the
forecasted sky cover and not ideal radiational cooling
conditions, have raised temps considerably for this time frame.
Friday high pressure will be moving east with disturbances to
our north and south. Southerly flow will be on the increase with
anomalously high precipitable waters increasing from the south. Friday should
be mostly precipitation-free with highs in the lower 30s north
to the mid 30s to lower 40s south. Skies will be cloudy as low
pressure approaches from the SW.
Saturday temperatures will be on the increase as warmer air
moves up ahead of the storm system. At this time it looks like
precipitation should break out Friday night in the SW and
gradually work its way northeastward. Precipitation will be a
brief mix initially. During the day Saturday rain will be most
common with snow at just the highest peaks. Some upslope showers
will persist Sunday as well. Quantitative precipitation forecast looks to be in the 1-1.5"
range, which may cause some problems on area rivers as far as
antecedent warmer temperatures combined with runoff.
The storm moves north-northeast Sunday with residual showers in
the higher terrain. We have a break briefly as high pressure
moves in on Monday, but then the next system arrives from the
southwest by Tuesday morning.
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through Thursday/...after some early morning IFR in
snow across southernmost New Hampshire and coastal ME through 13z this
morning, VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area
today. A few snow squalls will be possible in the mountains
tonight with gusty west winds there and elsewhere through 08z or
so. VFR conditions are expected through Thursday.
Long term...another low will track up the eastern Seaboard
bringing widespread rain to the area Friday into Saturday. MVFR
conditions are likely at all terminals, with -sn likely for kleb
and khie, and -ra for all other New Hampshire and ME terminals.
short term /through Thursday/...a cold front will push across
the waters early this evening and likely result in gale force
gusts on the ocean waters this evening through tonight. A Gale
Warning has been posted as a result. Winds will be weaker on the
bays, so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect there. Diminishing winds and seas
are expected Thursday.
Long term...another low will move up the eastern Seaboard with
gales possible in the Gulf of Maine Saturday morning into
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 am EST
Thursday for anz151-153.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 am EST Thursday for