Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 khgx 061804
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1204 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
Aviation [18z taf issuance]...
The front has pushed through the region leaving mostly sunny skies
and breezy northerly flow behind it. Gusts up to 20 mph are
possible through this evening. Some mid level clouds return
towards sunrise tomorrow, but otherwise expect VFR conditions
trough the period.
Previous discussion /issued 942 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019/...
Cold front is just about to exit off the coast bringing an end to
most of the foggy conditions. There is still some lingering fog
down near Galveston, Angleton, and Bay City, but this should be
dissipating within the next hour. Thus, going to let the marine
dense fog advisory in Matagorda Bay to expire at 10 am as planned.
The rest of the day will be relatively quiet with partly cloudy
skies with a breezy northerly wind that will continue through the
evening. Temperatures behind the front are actually not that much
colder, but the air is much drier. This combined with the breeze
today will make today feel quite a bit cooler than yesterday.
Short term [through saturday]...
Surface obs show that the approaching weak cold front is still to
the northwest of our area, and expectations are that it will reach
College Station around or just before dawn, the Houston Metro by
mid-morning, and push offshore and across the Gulf mid-day into
the afternoon. Until then, look for fog to develop ahead of the
front, particularly near the coast, and some more dense fog is
already beginning to crop up around and a little northeast of
Matagorda Bay. Shouldn't be widespread enough to need a dense fog
advisory, buuuuttttt...i'm not sure i'd rule it out yet either.
Taking a glance at the radar up north around the front, it is
pretty sparse except around Texarkana where there are some
showers. Did go with an OH, so slight chance of showers near the
coast...perhaps we'll gin up enough moisture and isentropic lift
closer to the Gulf to manage a couple brief showers. It'd be a
surprise to get anything more than an isolated shower or two,
Beyond that, look for breezier northwest winds with gusts of 15-25
mph (highest in the northwest) to usher in some drier and cooler
air for Saturday, which will be mostly clear and have diminishing
Long term [saturday night through friday]...
A return of onshore winds will begin tomorrow night (saturday night)
as high pressure starts moving off to the east. After a cool morning
on Sunday (lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland to the mid
to upper 50s at the coast), strengthening south winds will result in
afternoon highs warming into the 70s across the area. This onshore flow
and associated early December warming trend will continue on into Sunday
night (lows in the 50s/60s) and Monday (highs in the 70s/80s that might
get within a couple degrees of the records for the 9th as winds become
a little more southwesterly). This short warming trend comes to an end
Monday night through Tuesday morning with the passage of the area's
next cold front. Right now, it looks like temperatures will fall back
into the 40s/50s behind the front on Tuesday morning, and the area will
only warm up into the 50s/60s during the day as high pressure begins
to build in from the north. Temperatures will be staying on the cool
side (below normal) for the remainder of the week. Best rain chances
for the week look to come in the Monday night-Tuesday time period in
association with the frontal passage, but we will continue to keep
some rain in the forecast for much of the remainder of the week until
models come into better agreement on the development/strength/timing
of the next trof and associated shortwaves. 42
Visibility has dropped significantly on Matagorda Bay, and a
dense fog advisory has been issued for the area until 10 am -
roughly when a cold front will pass through the area and put an
end to the fog threat.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 46 67 47 73 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (iah) 53 68 50 72 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (gls) 58 65 58 69 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...small craft should exercise caution through late tonight for the
following zones: coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport Texas out 20 nm...Matagorda Bay...waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel Texas from 20 to 60
nm...waters from High Island to Freeport Texas from 20 to 60