Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 142027
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
127 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis...dry weather will continue over the central California
interior for the next several days. High temperatures will trend
slightly warmer through midweek then average cooler than normal
Thursday through the weekend. The nights will be seasonably chilly
through the period.
weak upper trough has moved through the region with cooler
temperatures today than yesterday by 3-6 degrees. Dry conditions
prevailed as the trough was moisture starved. Todays cooldown will
be short lived as the epac ridge will nose into norcal tomorrow.
Breezy conditions are possible across Merced County tonight with
the upper jet coming across. We should see temps warming back to
near normal conditions tomorrow and Wednesday with mostly clear
skies and light winds.
A very impressive cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska will swing an
occluded front through the region by Wednesday night. Once again,
the front will be moisture starved and we are not forecasting any
precipitation with the front. The most noticeable change will be
another drop in temperatures and gusty winds. We are looking at
around 8-12 degree drop for thursday's high temperatures from
wednesday's high temperatures. A few high clouds are possible as
the front passes through Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Winds will pick up across Kern County and will enhance fire
weather concerns across this region where fuel moisture values
are very low. The good news is that relative humidity values will not be in the
single digits as they have been over the past several days. So
hopefully this will help mitigate any significant fire threats.
The upcoming weekend looks very nice with highs in the low to mid
70's in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert regions.
Prevailing northwest upper flow through the weekend will keep the region
cool and dry. The morning lows in the sjv will be in the low to
mid 40s over most of the rural areas. It will feel more like fall
behind this cold front. The epac ridge will start to edge back
into California by Monday with a gradual warming trend of 4-7 degrees
in the sjv.
Aviation...VFR conditions can be expected over the central
California interior for at least the next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.