Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 161000
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
300 am PDT sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis...little change in temperatures can be expected over
the area today. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible
over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada today. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible over the Sierra Nevada on Monday.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail through the period. A warm up
is expected beginning on Monday into Thursday, with temperatures
in the valley and desert once again getting above the century mark
Discussion...the weak upper shortwave that crossed norcal on
Saturday is now moving across the Great Basin and away from our
area. Meanwhile, WV imagery is showing another fast moving
shortwave approaching the norcal coast which may bring increased
cloud cover to the northern portion of our area later this morning
and provide for enough orographic lift over the southern Sierra
Nevada for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will remain close to yday/S readings which were
slightly above seasonal normals.
A weak upper low is progged to drop southward through the area on
Monday which will result in increased instability over the
southern Sierra Nevada which may enhance the potential for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. WRF is continuing
to indicate an easterly flow behind the upper low which may allow
for some of the showers and thunderstorms to drift into the
southern Sierra foothills and possibly the eastern portion of the
San Joaquin Valley on Monday afternoon and evening.
A large upper ridge is still progged to build eastward into the
Pacific northwest and norcal on Tuesday and Wednesday which will result in
another round of much above normal daytime temperatures with
daytime afternoon highs progged to exceed the century mark across
much of the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County deserts. Medium
range models are in fairly good agreement indicating the ridge
will weaken and break down by late week which will result in a
cooling trend across the area.
Aviation...isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Sierra
crest between 20z Sunday through 03z Monday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail over the central California interior during the
next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...none.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.