Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 192235
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
335 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019
north winds will provide cool and breezy conditions through
Friday. Light precipitation will be possible in the higher
elevations of the Sierra through this evening. Temperatures will
warm to seasonal levels for the weekend.
some cumulus clouds developing over the mountains with radar
tracking a few showers over the High Sierra mainly north of the
Kings River. Shower activity should diminish during the evening as
well the breezy conditions. High resolution models prog some
clouds over the Tehachapi Mountains through tonight due to upslope
norht winds. North flow in between a trough in the Great Basin
and a ridge along the Pacific coast will provide cool temperatures
through Friday. Temperatures warm to near seasonal for the
weekend as the east Pacific Ridge builds inland.
Operational models start diverging early next week. The GFS is
the more progressive solution and further north, bringing a
trough of low pressure through the north Great Basin Monday. While the
Euro is further south over north California and closing the system over Nevada
then towards Arizona on Tuesday. The operational Canadian and ensemble
means more in line with the ec solution indicating a trough
remaining towards southeast California and Arizona. This solution would bring some
fire weather concerns for central California. Winds would be offshore
downsloping off the Sierra resulting in significant drying
towards the west side of the sj valley and central coast. While
temperatures warm as a ridge builds into pac northwest shifting south
over California through Wed.
The extended progs hinting at fall like conditions returning for
the following weekend. Both ec and GFS models foretell a cold
trough originating in the Gulf of Alaska moving south and closing
off over California in the 8-10 day period.
local mountain obscuration over the Tehachapi Mountains
12z Friday. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.