Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 khnx 222223
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hanford California
323 PM PDT Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis...temperatures will remain above normal through at least
Saturday the warmest days Thursday and Friday. A cooling trend is
expected early next week with temperatures falling to near normal.
Dry weather will persist through the next seven days.
visible satellite imagery shows sunny skies prevailing across the
central California interior as an upper ridge of high pressure over
the eastern Pacific remains in control. 24 hour trends indicate a
few degrees of warming and afternoon highs are on track to top out
around 5-8 degrees above normal for much of the San Joaquin Valley.
An upper trough will drop down over The Rockies on Wednesday and
bring some slight cooling to the High Sierra, but little changes
elsewhere. The trough shifts east on Thursday as the upper ridge
builds inland over the West Coast through Friday. This will bring
further warming with maximum temperatures on Thursday around 8-12
degrees above normal for late October. Models continue to show an
upper trough dropping over the Pacific northwest on Saturday for
the start of a cooldown. More substantial cooling is expected
Sunday and Monday with temperatures forecast to be near normal by
early next week. Dry weather is expected to continue through the
period. The latest deterministic European model (ecmwf) remains an outlier as it
digs the trough southwest over Southern California Sunday night
into Monday and even paints a little quantitative precipitation forecast over the mountains.
The well above normal temperatures this Thursday and Friday will be
accompanied by low relative humidities and gusty easterly winds in
the Kern County mountains. These elements in combination with very
dry fuels will likely create critical fire weather conditions in
the Kern County mountains and a portion of Sequoia National Forest
in southeastern Tulare County. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued in these areas for Thursday and Friday.
Aviation...local MVFR visibility in mist/haze in the San Joaquin
Valley between 13z and 17z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the central California interior through at least the
next 24 hours.
Air quality issues...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.Weather.Gov/hnx/certainty.Html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Fire Weather Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
evening for caz595>597.