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000 
FXUS66 KHNX 211112
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
312 AM PST Thu Nov 21 2019


.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure system that provided the forecast area
with southern valley rain and mountain snow is exiting the
district this morning. Period of dry weather starting today
through Monday as high pressure builds this weekend. Another 
storm system may impact Central California by midweek next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather day yesterday in Kern County with valley rain, 
a couple desert thunderstorms, and mountain snow. As much as 11 
to 14 inches of snow accumulation occurred in Pine Mountain Club 
yesterday. Additionally, Bakersfield got their first measureable 
rain of this wet season, with .37 inches of rain recorded 
yesterday at Meadows Field Airport. With the first measureable 
precip event occuring on 11/20/19 (yesterday) in Bakersfield, 
this makes it the 3rd latest start to the wet season in 
Bakersfield. A few light lingering showers early this morning 
across the east side valley and foothills of the Sierra Nevada;
a few showers with scant QPF totals this afternoon across the
Sierra Nevada. Totals this afternoon look low in the mountains in
terms of snow, so we have cancelled the Winter Storm Warning 
early. Drier conditions tomorrow as the upper low treks eastward. 
Expect afternoon high temperatures to be near seasonal norms, with
max T's in the low to mid 60s for a majority of the SJ Valley 
today.

Would not be surprised to see patchy fog develop Friday morning in
the lowest elevations of the valley, particularly in the south 
end of the valley where added moisture from the recent precip 
event fell yesterday. Patchy fog may occur throughout the weekend 
in the morning as well. Dry weather with a slight increase in
afternoon highs for Saturday as an upper level ridge of high 
pressure develops over Central California. Dry weather continues
Sunday and Monday, but afternoon highs Monday look to be knocked
down a couple degrees as a disturbance aloft passes through. This
disturbance may lead to gusty winds in the valley/Kern County
mountain passes Monday afternoon/evening.

By Tuesday, there is at least some agreement between the UKmet,
Euro, and GFS of an upper low to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska
and head southward. Blended model guidance is showing this storm
bringing precipitation POPS into the forecast area late Tuesday 
night and into Wednesday and Thursday, along with much cooler
temperatures. However, given that these model progs are still 
several days out, there is still considerable uncertainty in 
exactly how this event could unfold.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR with local IFR visibilities in the San Joaquin Valley due to
mist through 17z Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
elsewhere over the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday November 21 2019... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Madera
Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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