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fxus64 khun 200534 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama
1234 am CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

for 06z tafs.


Near term...(tonight)
issued at 838 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

In wake of a back door cold front that pushed through the region
earlier today, a cooler and drier air mass has filtered into the
area from the east. Other than a few scattered mid to high level
clouds, the sky has generally remained mostly clear. A light, but
steady 5-10 kt east-southeast wind will continue for most of the night due to
the pressure gradient in place. This wind will help to keep
temperatures in the low to mid 60s across much of the Tennessee
Valley, despite dewpoints dropping off well into the 50s later
tonight. Overall, another dry, but cooler night across the area, with
no weather impacts expected.

Short term...(friday through sunday)
issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A secondary push of a drier and slightly cooler air will continue to
push from Georgia into northern Alabama during the day on Friday.
This should lower relative humidity values near 30 percent in the
afternoon, as dewpoints drop into the lower to mid 50s (especially
east of I-65). Highs should be even more pleasant only reaching the
lower to mid 80s, despite a bit more sunshine. This should help to
shape low temperatures Friday night. Winds should remain around 5
knots and should keep temperatures from dropping to dewpoints, but
lows should still be able to drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Although tropical depression Imelda will continue to move northward
and dissipate, it will remain to far west of the area to affect
northern Alabama.

High pressure is forecast by models to weaken Friday night into the
weekend, as a fairly amplified longwave trough axis pushes east
towards the southeast. Temperatures look to warm up slightly over the
weekend, as more moist flow begins to return to the region. Highs
look to return into upper 80s. Lows in the mid to upper 60s also look
to be in the cards.

Long term...(monday through wednesday)
issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Models differ concerning how much moisture makes into the area ahead
and along the approaching longwave trough axis on Monday. For now,
included isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in
the forecast. Even more disparity is evident in the forecast Tuesday
through Wednesday, as GFS brings a more pronounced and wetter front
into the area. Models are even more different with a second storm
system staying much further west over Texas. Leaning toward wetter
solution due to strong ridge signal shown over eastern Pacific in
most synoptic models. For now included 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

Drier and hotter conditions may return quickly towards the end of
next week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1234 am CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Other than some high clouds in place across parts of the region, VFR
conds are xpcted thru the taf period. Sfc winds are again xpcted to
turn more southeast near 15kt with higher gusts Fri morning before
diminishing that evening.


Hun watches/warnings/advisories...


Near term...amp.24
short term...ktw
long term...ktw

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