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fxus63 kict 192338 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
638 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

..updated aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

A heat advisory remains in place over most of the area. An
excessive heat warning has been issued for portions of southeast
Kansas.

A strong ridge of high pressure will stick around for one more day
across the Central Plains before it begins breaking down late
tomorrow night. Southerly flow at the surface will continue to
advect upper 70s dew points into the region tomorrow. A slight
increase in 1000-850 thickness values near the 1460-1470m mark
will support temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 for much of the
area. Thus heat indices are expected rise to the 105-110 range
across much of the area. Increased confidence across portions of
southeast Kansas for heat indices meeting or exceeding 110 has
prompted the excessive heat warning.

A strong trough is progged to begin its swing down from Manitoba
through the Great Lakes region Wednesday which will help push a
sagging weak cold front into the region Wednesday and bring some
relief to the high temperatures, with highs around 90. A mid level
shortwave will also move through the area Wednesday which will
support chances for scattered showers and storms throughout the
day. Chances for showers and storms will increase overnight
Wednesday into Thursday as strong 850-700mb warm advection
persists through the overnight hours. Scattered showers will
likely linger through the day Thursday with highs held to the low
to mid 80s.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will
continue throughout the weekend with weak northwesterly flow
progged over the area with subtle shortwaves likely moving over
the region. There remains some model disagreements as to the
timing of any precip but will be refined with further issuances.
Expect weekend temperatures to be near seasonable normals, in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Relatively few aviation concerns are expected over the next 24
hours across central, south central, and southeast Kansas. As the
previous aviation discussion mentioned, only a few diurnal
cumulus and patchy thin cirrus are expected. Southerly surface
flow will persist as well. VFR flight conditions are expected to
remain in place through the night and the day tomorrow. Wind speed
cross sections hint at some weak low-level wind shear potential
overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning, but confidence in
low-level wind shear is low at this time. Will continue to monitor
the potential and update with the 06z tafs if needed.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 76 99 75 90 / 0 10 20 30
Hutchinson 75 100 73 90 / 10 10 30 30
Newton 75 98 72 90 / 0 10 30 40
Eldorado 76 98 73 90 / 0 10 20 40
Winfield-kwld 76 98 75 91 / 10 10 20 30
Russell 73 101 70 90 / 10 10 40 40
Great Bend 74 101 70 90 / 10 10 40 30
Salina 76 101 72 90 / 10 10 40 50
McPherson 75 99 72 90 / 10 10 40 40
Coffeyville 76 96 75 92 / 0 0 10 30
Chanute 75 95 73 90 / 0 10 20 40
Iola 75 95 73 90 / 10 10 20 40
Parsons-kppf 75 95 74 90 / 0 10 20 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ksz098>100.

Heat advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ksz033-048>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096.

&&

$$

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