Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kict 111731 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1131 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 308 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Main concern is trends in light wintry precip this morning
through midday across central and southeast Kansas. Strong low
level cold advection was underway early this morning as Arctic air
advances south across the Central Plains. A combination of
isentropic ascent and frontogenesis in proximity to the entrance
region of the upper level jet will provide sufficient lift to
squeeze out light precip across much of the forecast area through
the morning. Until the deeper colder air aloft arrives, thermal
profiles within the saturated airmass will support a liquid or a
mixed precip type, especially where temperatures drop below
freezing by sunrise across portions of south central Kansas and
the Flint Hills. The potential for freezing drizzle or very light
freezing rain will expand across southeast Kansas later in the
morning, before ending as a brief period of light snow or flurries
by early afternoon. While expected to be very light, some slick
spots on roadways and minor ice accumulations are possible on
elevated surfaces this morning, generally along and south of
Highway 50. A light dusting of snow is possible further north
across central Kansas along and north of the I-70 corridor.
Otherwise, the main theme into the afternoon will be the brisk
north winds and cold temperatures/low wind chills before winds
slacken this evening. The core of the Arctic high pressure will
drift across the area tonight with clear skies and light winds
providing ideal radiational cooling with lows near record levels
over central Kansas. Some moderation will occur on Tuesday in the
return southerly flow, though temperatures remaining well below
seasonal climo until Wednesday.

Darmofal

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 308 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

The latter portion of the week looks generally dry with
temperatures trending closer to climo after a brief push of subtle
cooling on Thursday. The GFS is a bit more progressive with an
upper trof moving across the plains by the weekend and likewise
the passage of a modest cold front.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1130 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Windy conditions are expected to continue for most of the forecast
area for the daylight hours, with north winds of 20 gusting to 35
kts.

Most of southern Kansas and portions of central Kansas will see pockets of
MVFR cigs and even some light snow (-sn) or flurries, before the
MVFR cigs and flurries end by late this afternoon. Already seeing
some clearing skies and VFR conditions returning to northern Kansas at
this time, and expect this clearing trend to make its way south by
late this afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 308 am CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Strong north winds will elevate the grassland fire danger in
precipitation-free areas today, especially this afternoon. After
today, dry weather is expected the rest of this week. Brisk south
winds by mid-week could lead to elevated fire danger again by
Wednesday.

Ked

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 30 12 37 24 / 20 0 0 0
Hutchinson 29 8 38 22 / 40 0 0 0
Newton 28 10 36 23 / 30 0 0 0
Eldorado 29 11 35 23 / 20 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 31 12 36 24 / 40 0 0 0
Russell 26 8 41 26 / 60 0 0 0
Great Bend 27 8 41 25 / 50 0 0 0
Salina 28 8 39 24 / 60 0 0 0
McPherson 27 7 37 23 / 40 0 0 0
Coffeyville 34 14 34 22 / 70 0 0 0
Chanute 32 12 33 22 / 60 0 0 0
Iola 31 12 33 21 / 50 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 34 13 34 22 / 60 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for ksz032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098-099.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations