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afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
537 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 1225 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

One more day of unseasonably cold weather for the short range today.
Despite the sunny skies, it will be difficult for temperatures to
climb above 40 today. The high pressure system that brought the
cold weather will be moving out of the region this afternoon which
will allow southerly flow and some weak warm air advection to return the region.
Clear night time skies and sunny day time skies are expected through
the remainder of the short term. Weak warm air advection is expected to persist
through this time however, temperatures are not expected to get
above normal. This is due to another front coming through the
region Thursday night to close out the short term.

Thursday's front is expected to come through dry as there is little
if any moisture transport to speak up ahead of it. As such, the
skies are likely to remain clear or partly cloudy Thursday as the
front comes through. This front will bring another re-enforcing
shot of cold air which will bring the temps back down. This air is
not expected to be as cold as the record breaking cold we had this
morning though.

Metzger

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 1225 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The extended range looks to remain quiet and continued dry for the
most part. There will be another weak cold front coming though
Saturday night. Unlike the front expected for Thursday, this front
may have some precipitation with it as there does appear to be some
weak moisture transport ahead of it. Unfortunately, the chances for
precipitation looks to remain low and may not occur at all but
can't be completely ruled out. The cold air from saturday's front
is not expected to last long and warm air advection does appear to return fairly
quick. The European model (ecmwf)/GFS/Gem are all indicating some decent ridging to
build into the region toward the end of the extended range. This
lends to the possibility of warming temperatures into next week.

Metzger

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 529 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Aviation concerns: 1) llws, 2) gusty winds, 3) wind shift

Changes since 18z tafs: increased mid/high clouds for Wednesday

As of 23z, a Lee-side surface trough stretched north to south from
the Dakotas to eastern Colorado. Ahead of this trough, a tight
pressure gradient will allow gusty S/SW winds to continue through
the night and into the day Wednesday areawide. Additionally, a
30-40kt low level jet overspreading the area through the night will lead to
low level wind shear conditions at all terminals. Later in the day Wednesday, the
surface trough will begin to cross the area, leading to a wind
shift. Other than increasing mid/upper level clouds, VFR
conditions are anticipated over the next 24 hours.

Martin

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 1225 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The dry conditions are expected to continue for the next few days.
Due to the dry conditions and the cured nature of the ground, it
will not take much wind to create some elevated fire conditions. This
afternoon will have some very high fire danger along the I-70
corridor with Wednesday the very high fire danger shifting to the
Flint Hills and other parts southeast Kansas.

Metzger

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 20 50 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 20 52 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 20 48 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 19 48 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 20 50 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 23 53 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 23 55 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 21 52 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 21 51 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 19 47 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 18 46 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 18 45 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 19 46 28 46 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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