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fxus63 kict 210814 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
314 am CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 314 am CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Currently have an upper trough extending from the northern rockies
into the central Great Basin with southwest flow aloft over the
plains. At the surface, trough extends from central South Dakota into
eastern Colorado. Like last night, regional radar animation shows an
upper impulse generating showers over central OK.

Just like yesterday, won't be out of the question to see some
light showers or drizzle this morning for areas along and
southeast of the Kansas Turnpike as the upper impulse over central OK
lifts off to the northeast. This area is also situated under
moderate 850-700mb moisture transport.

Robust convection is expected to develop late this afternoon along
a cold front which is anticipated to stretch from north of kddc to
near krsl and into south central Nebraska by 00z sun. Current
thinking is that storms will develop by around 22z-23z along the
front and will quickly become severe. With 2,000-3,000j/kg of cape
and 0-6km shear in the 30-35kt range, hail to the size of Golf
balls will be possible along with damaging downburst winds. Not
out of the question to see a couple tornadoes within a few hours
of initiation if the supercells can remain relatively isolated.
So will message that the best chance for higher end severe will
be over mainly central Kansas this evening, before this activity
congeals into an mesoscale convective system and pushes into eastern Kansas.

A secondary area of convection is expected to develop later
tonight as very impressive 850-700mb moisture transport lifts out
of western/central OK and moves into southeast Kansas. European model (ecmwf)-GFS-NAM
agree well on this area of heavy rainfall starting to impact
southeast Kansas generally around or after 09z sun and continuing
after 12z. We are looking at precipitable water values around or slightly greater
than 2.25" which is around 200% of normal. Even though the area of
heavy rainfall will be fairly progressive, feel that rainfall
rates will be high enough to cause flooding and flash flooding.
With this, went ahead and expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include all of southeast Kansas.

By 15z sun, upper trough will be making its way across the
Central Plains with far southeast Kansas still in the right entrance
region of a strong upper jet, which should allow heavy rainfall to
linger into the early afternoon hours. By 21z sun, majority of
rainfall is expected to be east of the forecast area as a cold
front makes its way across the region. Surface high will settle
over the area for Sun night into Mon, keeping rain out of the
forecast.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 314 am CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

By Tue, European model (ecmwf) and GFS agree well on a closed upper low sinking
south across the Desert Southwest. Tonight's runs are much less
progressive with this feature compared to last night's runs of the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS. Meanwhile further north, there is also good
agreement in some shortwave energy diving southeast across the
northern plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow
a cold front to move into the area by Wed. The next good rain
chances will come as the upper low over the southwest Continental U.S.
Finally lifts out into the plains. This looks to happen in the
Thu-Fri time frame.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

MVFR ceilings are expected to rule the region for most of this taf
period. Some IFR conditions are expected periodically during the
day Saturday. Moisture transport looks to be good enough to allow
for some drizzle and low end fog to be possible over parts of
southeast Kansas which is expected to affect the cnu terminal this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop in
this area after sunrise. Later in the day, a cold front will push
through the region which will kick off a couple of rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to affect all
terminals during the later half of the taf period. This
thunderstorms is expected to have very heavy rain with it which
will likely cause some LIFR conditions as well for short periods
of time.

Metzger



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 84 69 78 57 / 30 70 60 10
Hutchinson 86 66 78 55 / 30 60 50 0
Newton 82 68 77 55 / 30 70 60 10
Eldorado 80 70 77 56 / 40 70 70 10
Winfield-kwld 82 70 79 58 / 40 70 70 10
Russell 87 61 76 55 / 50 70 40 0
Great Bend 88 62 76 54 / 50 70 40 0
Salina 86 66 76 55 / 40 70 60 0
McPherson 84 67 75 54 / 30 70 50 0
Coffeyville 82 73 79 61 / 50 70 80 30
Chanute 80 72 78 58 / 50 70 80 30
Iola 79 71 77 58 / 50 70 90 30
Parsons-kppf 80 72 79 60 / 50 70 80 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for
ksz052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

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