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fxus63 kict 182037 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
337 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 333 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019

Forecast highlights:

1. Chance for isolated thunderstorms in southeast Kansas this

2. Dangerous heat indices both Monday and Tuesday afternoons

Early afternoon surface analysis reveals a weak synoptic cold front
extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southward through
the upper and middle Mississippi River valley and into northeast
Kansas. Latest surface observations suggest the front then snakes
from northeast Kansas, across central Kansas, and into the
Oklahoma Panhandle. 19z metars at Ellsworth and Russell depict
calm winds while weak southerly surface flow prevails south of the
boundary across much of the forecast area. This front is progged
to sag southward late afternoon and early evening, though some
question about its evolution remains given the lack of meaningful
southerly progression so far today. Temperatures and moisture in
southeast Kansas have largely recovered in the wake of lingering
convection that exited the region this morning, and mesoanalysis
reveals sufficient MLCAPE that should continue to increase over
the next 4-6 hours or so in the vicinity of southeast
Kansas/southwest Missouri/northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas.
As convective inhibition continues a downward trend, there is
potential for some thunderstorm development within the area of
continued advection of warm, moist air (with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s). Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts would support a
strong to marginally severe storm or two should convective
initiation occur this far north. With that being said, most models
are favoring an area to the southeast of the ict forecast area
for convective initiation, and the latest Storm Prediction Center day 1 convective
outlook has placed the marginal severe risk well to the south of
the area. Given the uncertainty and conditional nature of storm
chances, however, have maintained chance pops in the forecast
throughout much of the evening for far southeast Kansas.

BUFKIT model soundings also hint at the possibility of some low
clouds/patchy fog north of the front in central Kansas overnight
tonight and early tomorrow morning. Lingering clouds throughout the
morning should begin to clear up by mid-day tomorrow or so.

Attention then turns to very high heat indices across a large swath
of central and eastern Kansas tomorrow afternoon and again on
Tuesday as the front retreats northward across the area as an
effective warm front. Continued low-level southerly flow and 1000-
850mb thicknesses near 1450m or so will allow temperatures to heat
up into the mid to upper 90s while dewpoints increase well into the
70s. The hot and humid conditions will support heat index values in
the 105-110 degree range nearly area-wide Monday afternoon. A
similar pattern will persist on Tuesday with even higher forecast
temperatures. As a result, have issued a heat advisory which runs
throughout this period. See the latest advisory for details.

By Tuesday evening, another cold front will sag into northern
Kansas and mark the return of chances of thunderstorms in the
forecast. As the previous discussion mentioned, very weak shear
should keep the potential for severe storms quite low.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 333 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019

Chances of showers and storms will linger throughout much of the
day on Wednesday as the front slowly pushes southward across
Kansas. Relief from the heat will also be in store for Wednesday,
since lingering showers/storms/clouds will cap temperatures
around 90 degrees or so.

Some areas should receive at least a temporary reprieve from
thunderstorms on Thursday-Friday, but have maintained low pops
throughout the period given the uncertainty in the front
placement. Afternoon highs slightly lower than climatology are
likely to persist throughout the rest of the period.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1241 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019

A weak surface front will sag southward into southern Kansas this
afternoon and evening with a light easterly component wind
prevailing overnight. Isolated convection is possible thru early
this evening as the front drifts into southeast Kansas. MVFR/IFR
stratus cigs are expected to develop north of the front with
patchy MVFR fog vsbys across central Kansas early Monday morning.
The front will gradually retreat northward on Monday with
conditions improving to high end MVFR or VFR by midday.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 72 96 76 99 / 0 0 0 10
Hutchinson 69 97 75 100 / 10 0 0 10
Newton 70 94 75 98 / 0 0 0 10
Eldorado 72 94 75 98 / 10 0 0 10
Winfield-kwld 73 97 75 98 / 20 0 0 10
Russell 63 94 73 101 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 65 96 73 101 / 0 0 10 10
Salina 67 95 75 101 / 10 10 0 10
McPherson 67 96 74 99 / 10 0 0 10
Coffeyville 74 96 75 96 / 40 0 10 0
Chanute 72 94 74 95 / 30 0 0 10
Iola 72 93 74 95 / 30 0 0 10
Parsons-kppf 74 95 75 95 / 40 0 10 10


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from 1 PM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ksz033-



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