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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
653 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 309 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Forecast highlights:
shower/thunderstorm chances southeast Kansas late Monday night
through Tuesday morning, and again Friday night through next
weekend. Temperature-wise...seasonably warm weather Monday, a
cool-down Tuesday-Wednesday, with seasonably warm temperatures
returning Thursday through next weekend.

Tonight through Monday...quiet weather expected, as low amplitude
upper ridging traverses mid-America. Strengthening Lee trough
will support breezy/gusty south winds Monday afternoon. Increasing
atmospheric thickness will support daytime temperatures warming
well into the 70s for most.

Monday night through Tuesday...a fairly strong cold front will
surge south across mid-America, as Stout shortwave energy drops
southeast across the north-central Continental U.S.. modest moisture
transport and isentropic ascent amidst weak instability may
support a few thunderstorms across southeast Kansas late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Widespread thunderstorm coverage or
strong/severe storms are not expected. Tuesday temperatures behind
the cold front will cool into the 60s on Stout/gusty northwest
winds.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...the coldest night and day of
the next 7 days will likely be Tuesday night and Wednesday, as
Canadian high pressure settles southeast across the Heartland.
Forecast lows are well into the 30s, coldest central and north-
central Kansas, with forecast highs in the low-mid 60s.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 309 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

Unseasonably warm weather should materialize across the region
from Thursday through the weekend, as an unseasonably deep upper
trough gradually takes shape across the western Continental U.S.. this
pattern should support high temperatures well into the 70s to
possibly low 80s across the forecast area, with overnight lows
mostly in the 50s to low 60s. Shower/thunderstorm chances will
increase as well, especially by Saturday night and Sunday, as the
deep western Continental U.S. Trough and associated strong cold front
approach from the west/northwest. Magnitude of forcing,
moisture/instability and deep layer shear would support
strong/severe storms, with possibly wintry precipitation well
north across portions of Nebraska. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty surrounding this storm system, so stay tuned.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 652 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

It'll be clear flying thru Mon night & likely beyond as an upper-
Deck Ridge deamplifies while it spreads east across the nrn plains
Mon morning. Fairly weak low pressure situated from Wyoming to Colorado would
induce calm/weak east/southeast winds to become southeast-S & increase to ~17kts
sustained with ~25kt gusts across c & SC Kansas ~18z.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 45 76 54 66 / 0 0 10 10
Hutchinson 42 76 49 66 / 0 0 10 0
Newton 44 74 52 64 / 0 0 10 10
Eldorado 45 74 55 65 / 0 0 10 10
Winfield-kwld 46 76 58 68 / 0 0 10 20
Russell 39 76 44 63 / 0 0 10 0
Great Bend 40 76 44 64 / 0 0 10 0
Salina 39 75 46 64 / 0 0 10 0
McPherson 41 75 48 64 / 0 0 10 0
Coffeyville 45 75 60 69 / 0 0 20 30
Chanute 43 74 58 67 / 0 0 20 30
Iola 43 73 57 66 / 0 0 20 20
Parsons-kppf 43 76 59 68 / 0 0 20 30

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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