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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
255 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 252 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019

No big storm systems expected the next several days, with mostly
dry weather prevailing across the forecast area.

A quick temperature rebound into the 50s is expected today, as
atmospheric thickness builds ahead of an approaching western Continental U.S.
Trough. It will be rather breezy, especially west of the Kansas
Turnpike, as High Plains Lee troughing commences.

Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection will support
increasing low clouds across eastern Kansas late tonight through at
least Sunday morning. Weak to modest low-level lift in concert
with marginally deep enough saturation may support patchy light
drizzle from generally the Flint Hills on east. If this occurs, it
should remain all liquid, as temperatures will be well above
freezing. Despite the clouds, warm advection should allow for 50s
most areas Sunday.

Much cooler temperatures and strong/gusty northwest winds will
return by late Sunday night and Monday, as a strong cold front
drives south across the Heartland in response to a deepening
longwave trough across central-eastern North America. Monday highs
will only reach the 30s and 40s, with wind chills as cold as the
teens. May see a few stray snow flurries with the frontal passage,
but absolutely no accumulation is expected.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 252 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Below normal temperatures should linger for Tue and Wed, as
medium range ensemble consensus supports a persistent sharp upper
ridge across far western North America, and a deep longwave trough
across central-eastern portions of the continent. This longwave
pattern typically supports below normal temperatures across mid-
America. Per ensemble consensus, the Sharp Ridge/trough pattern
dampens by late week, supporting moderating temperatures by Thu-
Fri and into the weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

VFR conditions are expected across the region for the next 24 hours.
Expect a gradual wind shift back to the south by Sat morning, with
some wind gusts to around 25 kts across central Kansas by Sat afternoon.
Could also see some patchy ground fog across portions of southeast Kansas on
Sat morning. So will go with some MVFR vsbys for fog for the kcnu
taf site for the early morning hours.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 252 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Critical/red flag fire danger not expected the next 7 days.

Stout/gusty south to southwest winds and warming temperatures
will support low-end very high grassland fire danger across
portions of central and north-central Kansas today. The same holds
true for Monday across much of central, south-central and
southeast Kansas, due to strong/gusty northwest winds in wake of a
strong cold front. Temperatures will be much cooler Monday in the
30s and 40s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 54 38 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 54 34 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 53 37 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 53 39 56 35 / 0 0 10 0
Winfield-kwld 54 40 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 57 34 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 56 32 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 55 35 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 54 34 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 55 40 59 42 / 0 10 10 10
Chanute 53 40 56 40 / 0 10 10 0
Iola 53 39 56 39 / 0 10 10 0
Parsons-kppf 54 40 58 42 / 0 10 10 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

$$

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