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fxus63 kict 160836 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
336 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 331 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Today:
anticipating an overall downtrend in coverage/intensity through
mid morning as instability is consumed by ongoing convection.
Extensive clouds and higher dew points will likely cut into high
temperatures in southeast Kansas once again. Given weak forcing, not
expecting more than isolated-scattered storms later this
afternoon, if any.

Tonight-monday:
storms are more likely tonight. While magnitude of low level jet
is a bit questionable, thinking this may be offset by boundary
and/or upper low circulation either over or just south of
southeast Kansas. This could bring another round of storms and locally
heavy rain to a small part of southeast Kansas. There is also
considerable uncertainty how far west/north any precipitation
would extend/expand. Anticipate day shift will make significant
changes to area/probabilities as confidence in model runs tonight
is lacking.

Tuesday:
both GFS/European model (ecmwf) show decent shortwave moving through late
Tuesday/Tuesday night, which should result in a good chance for
strong-severe storms. -Howerton

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 331 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Appears there would be brief reprieve in rain behind the
departing shortwave on Wednesday and into Thursday. However with
the return to more zonal flow, the potential for mainly nocturnal
storms will return by Thursday night and continue into the
weekend. Overall there is a bit better agreement between
GFS/European model (ecmwf) tonight, although this wanes on Fri/Sat. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1226 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019

Messy aviation forecast with good instability across southern half
of forecast area, but flow aloft is weak so much of the movement
is cold pool dominated. Will have tempo thunderstorms and rain at kict and kcnu for
several hours early on, then transitioning to thunderstorms in the vicinity into the
morning. Anticipate precipitation to end before mid morning at
kict,although kcnu could linger well into the morning with
approaching upper low. This will also play into chances this
afternoon as effective surface boundary may be quite diffuse.
Anticipating only isolated at best this afternoon at kcnu with
some support from northern side of upper low and slight uptick
during the evening. -Howerton

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 85 66 85 65 / 20 20 20 30
Hutchinson 84 63 85 64 / 20 10 10 40
Newton 83 65 84 64 / 20 10 20 30
Eldorado 82 64 83 64 / 20 20 20 20
Winfield-kwld 82 63 83 65 / 40 20 20 20
Russell 86 63 84 62 / 10 10 10 60
Great Bend 85 62 85 63 / 10 10 10 60
Salina 88 63 86 64 / 10 10 10 40
McPherson 86 62 85 64 / 10 10 10 40
Coffeyville 80 65 83 65 / 50 30 40 10
Chanute 81 66 83 64 / 40 30 40 10
Iola 83 66 83 63 / 30 20 40 10
Parsons-kppf 81 65 83 64 / 40 30 40 10

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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