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fxus63 kict 121108 
afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
508 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 253 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

A record cold morning across portions of central Kansas as the core
of the Arctic high pressure drifts across the area. Despite the
return southerly flow in the wake of the departing surface high
pressure today, rather shallow mixing/scouring within the
retreating cold airmass will keep temperatures well below seasonal
climo with afternoon highs mainly in the 30s. However, more
noticeable warming is expected on Wednesday ahead of the next
upper level trof and associated surface cold front moving
southeast across the northern plains. Modest cooling is expected
behind this front for Thursday.

Darmofal

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 253 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Temperatures are expected to trend closer to mid-November climo as
we head into the weekend. There is a bit more consensus in the
medium range on moving an upper trof across the plains by Saturday
night and Sunday, with the trof becoming more amplified as it
progresses across the Mississippi Valley into the eastern Continental U.S. By
Sunday night/Monday. Moisture looks rather limited with the
associated cold front over the weekend, though decent forcing/lift
may support some scattered very light precip. However chances and
quantitative precipitation forecast look relatively small in space and time, so plan to keep the
forecast dry for now.

Ked

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 504 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Relatively calm winds across the area expected to continue for the
next several hours as winds rotate around to the south as the sfc
high pressure drifts east. Winds will pick up this afternoon and
be gusty at times, especially across central Kansas. Low level wind shear will be
possible overnight at all taf sites due to a 30-45 kt low level jet that
will develop first over central Kansas and then over south central and
southeast Kansas by tomorrow morning.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 253 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Despite chilly temperatures today, very dry air and increasing
south winds across central Kansas will result in very high fire
danger this afternoon. Warming on Wednesday and stronger south
winds ahead of a weak cold front will result in very high fire
danger across the Flint Hills and much of southeast Kansas.
Little if any precipitation is expected this week into the
upcoming weekend with elevated fire weather concerns possible
again on Friday afternoon.

Ked

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 36 21 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 37 21 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 35 21 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 34 21 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 35 22 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 40 24 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 40 23 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 37 22 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 36 21 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 33 18 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 32 19 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 31 19 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 32 19 50 27 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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