Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS63 KICT 150431
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1131 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Tonight:
A few of the high resolution models generate a couple of storms in
central KS this evening. Continued very small chances for storms
mainly north of I-70 for this possibility. Absence of surface
boundary/convergence makes chances appear pretty low. Gusty winds
would be the main threat, and possibly some small hail. Otherwise
a mild night is expected with combo of dew points and winds 
keeping temperatures mild. 

Sunday-Tuesday:
Dry and breezy to windy weather is anticipated as ridging aloft
develops across the Plains. By Tuesday, tightening surface
pressure gradient and good mixing could promote low end wind
advisory for parts of central KS. Otherwise mild temperatures are
anticipated. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Wednesday-Saturday:
Some improvement in model consistency compared to yesterday. Cold
front may make a foray into the area on Wednesday-Wednesday night,
with a reasonable chance of storms in central KS. Otherwise as
suspected, GFS backed off with the southern progression of cold
front and ECMWF is a bit faster. Storms on the front are probable
by late Saturday as upper ridge is finally displaced by
approaching long wave trough. The extent of convection prior to
this is unclear. Some potential for storms/complexes rolling into
deeper moisture over the area, early morning elevated storms, or
even isolated afternoon storms where surface convergence is
maximized. Models have so far show little reliability/consistency
with QPF and doubt that will improve much in the next few days.
Tweaked initialization grids as much as possible to limit chances.
Confidence in timing/location of storms and front remains low,
with potential for large errors in temperatures. Did not stray
from initialization grids on temperatures. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Main aviation concern will be wind shear overnight.

Storms that developed along the front over central KS dissipated
recently with additional activity not expected. Wind shear is
still expected overnight, especially over central KS. By around
2,000ft, southwest winds around 40kts are expected with these
conditions lasting until around sunrise. Confidence is high that 
VFR conditions will remain in place through the next 24 hours. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  93  69  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      71  94  69  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          71  91  69  89 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        70  89  68  89 /   0  10   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   69  91  69  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         70  95  71  92 /  20   0   0   0 
Great Bend      71  94  70  91 /  10   0   0   0 
Salina          73  94  71  92 /  10   0   0   0 
McPherson       71  93  69  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     69  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         69  91  68  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            69  90  68  90 /   0  10   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    69  91  68  90 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations