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afdict

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1137 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 249 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Tonight-monday:
ripple in northwest flow associated with 300mb jet will increase
clouds tonight with clearing during the day on Monday. The
associated weak front/wind shift will also push across the area
during the day. Hedged closer to warmer guidance with good
downslope flow and warming 850mb temperatures during the
afternoon.

Tuesday:
ridge axis moves through with return flow developing during the
day. Good downslope flow off the deck should allow nice warmup
once again. Winds should remain up during the night, resulting in
warmer minimums Tuesday night and a slight increase in dewpoints.

Wednesday-Wednesday night:
influx of low level moisture could lead to low clouds in the
morning, but confidence is not that high given variabilities of
models and ongoing run to run variations. Temperatures could be
tricky, especially if precipitation is as widespread as
advertised. Of note, operational model runs delay precipitation
significantly compared to ensemble run/nbm/initialization grids.
Precipitation becomes more likely very late in the afternoon and
evening. Lapse rates would support at least chance of thunderstorm
areawide. -Howerton

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 249 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Confidence in this period remains low. Considerable model to
model and run to run variations continue, with GFS generally
faster and European model (ecmwf) slower with progression of complex western flow.
The potential interaction between closed low and waves in
northern stream are notoriously poorly handled by models. There
continues to be nbm continuity for a dry period Thursday- Thursday
night. Nbm and initialization grids seem to be on the cooler side
of the guidance spread, with a 50/50 blend of 1200 UTC GFS/European model (ecmwf)
operational runs much warmer for lows Thursday/Friday morning and
much cooler for highs on Friday. So confidence in any wintry mix
this period is low. -Howerton

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1136 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, there will be a
substantial increase in middle and high clouds late tonight into
early on Mon, possibly with ceilings around 5,000 feet or so. By
late Mon morning, gusty north winds will return to central Kansas by
around 16z with some gusts 25 kts possible.

Winds should diminish by late Mon afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 249 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Gusty south winds and relatively dry air will result in elevated
fire danger on Monday across central and south central Kansas. Some
areas of very high GFDI are also possible Tuesday afternoon in far
west, but this is contingent on return flow increasing in the
afternoon. Similar potential somewhere across the area on
Wednesday, but model variability and timing of onset of rain is
problematic, resulting in lower confidence. -Howerton

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 37 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 31 70 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 34 68 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
Eldorado 36 68 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-kwld 36 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 36 69 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 37 71 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 34 70 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 37 69 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 34 65 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 34 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 32 62 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-kppf 34 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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