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fxus63 kict 140915 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
315 am CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 315 am CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Main concern is trend in wintry precip type/amounts across the area
and potential impacts late tonight through midday Monday. Shallow
cold air will advect south across central and eastern Kansas today
resulting in temperatures closer to seasonal climo. The long
anticipated upper trof is progged to finally move onshore this
evening across northern California with a strong downstream upper
jet and zonal flow aloft across Kansas. Initial isentropic ascent
begins this evening/early tonight across central Kansas and deepens
into Sunday morning. This lift may be sufficient to overcome drier
air in the low levels for scattered light precip across central
Kansas before dawn early Sunday morning. Some mixed wintry precip
could also develop over the Flint Hills and portions of southeast
Kansas Sunday morning, though mainly looking like drizzle or
freezing drizzle, depending on surface temperatures across south
central and southeast Kansas into Sunday afternoon. However,
deeper saturated isentropic lift closer to the elevated
frontogenetic zone is expected to persist through much of Sunday
further north across Central/Northeast Kansas, where thermal
profiles support a wintry mix to mainly snow, along/north of the
I-70 corridor. This is where confidence is highest on light to
moderate snow accums on Sunday. By Sunday night/Monday morning,
lift along the mid-level baroclinic zone will shift southeastward
in response to stronger low and mid-level cold advection as the
upper trof moves over the area. While wintry precip/snow should
gradually wane across central Kansas, a secondary transient band
of mixed wintry precip to snow may develop over the Flint Hills
into southeast Kansas before ending by midday Monday. Overall for
this event, confidence remains highest for light to moderate snow
accums to be the main impact generally closer to and north of
I-70 in central Kansas, mixed wintry precip/freezing drizzle and
mainly light ice accums with possible slick travel over much of
south central Kansas, with a wintry mix to light rain or drizzle
in southeast Kansas transitioning back to a wintry mix to
possibly light snow before ending. That said, confidence for a
Winter Weather Advisory is high enough with this forecast issuance
for locations generally along/north of a Kingman to Wichita to
Chanute line, with potential for a southward expansion with later
forecast issuances.


Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 315 am CST Sat Dec 14 2019

After a chilly day on Tuesday, dry weather with a gradual
moderating trend in temperatures expected by Wednesday and
Thursday as an upper ridge moves over the plains. Another trof
will move into the area by Thursday night/Friday, though system
looks dry for now.



Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1129 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

Northwest winds at 10-15 knots were present across the region in
the wake of a cold front. As the mid-level trough axis moves east
of the area early this morning, steep mid-level lapse rates will
exit allowing the pesky mid clouds to diminish. Low level cold air
advection will bring another stratus layer into northern and
portions of central Kansas during the predawn hours with some MVFR and
IFR likely. With increasing subsidence in the wake of the trough,
clouds are expected to diminish during the morning hours on Sat
before lowering once again as we move into the evening hours
ahead of the next system. Winds will slowly back during the day
with light northeasterly winds anticipated during the afternoon


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 39 26 33 20 / 0 20 60 50
Hutchinson 37 23 30 18 / 10 20 60 50
Newton 37 23 30 18 / 0 20 60 50
Eldorado 38 24 32 21 / 0 20 60 50
Winfield-kwld 41 28 36 23 / 0 10 40 50
Russell 35 19 27 15 / 10 40 70 60
Great Bend 36 20 28 16 / 10 40 60 60
Salina 35 21 29 17 / 10 30 70 60
McPherson 36 22 29 16 / 10 30 60 60
Coffeyville 40 29 41 26 / 0 10 50 60
Chanute 38 26 36 23 / 10 10 60 60
Iola 36 25 34 23 / 10 10 60 70
Parsons-kppf 39 29 38 25 / 0 10 50 60


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am Sunday to noon CST Monday for


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