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fxus63 kict 171535 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
1035 am CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

issued at 1035 am CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

850-700mb warm advection and moisture transport ahead of subtle
ripples in the mid-upper flow is aiding isolated to scattered
shower/thunderstorm clusters across the southeast quarter of Kansas
this morning. Given latest observational and short-term model
trends, suspect this activity may tend to fester into the
afternoon across eastern and southeast KS, as warm advection
persists. Consequently, suspect organized severe storm threat
during the day may be limited, although an isolated severe storm
is possible given instability/shear combo, especially if a storm
can form in vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary late this
afternoon-evening. Short-term model consensus supports higher
storm chances arriving across northern Kansas later this evening
and tonight on the northern edge of warmer mid-level
temperatures. This activity may either develop on the nose of a
strengthening low-level jet, and/or move east off the High Plains.
Either way, sporadic instances of large hail and damaging winds
are possible, along with locally heavy rain.



Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 347 am CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Rest of the weekend:
thunderstorm potential & increasing heat continue to draw greatest
attention this morning. As expected, numerous thunderstorms, many
them strong or severe, broke out along & north of a previously
stationary front that extends generally in an east/west manner
across southern Kansas. The numerous thunderstorms that continue
across about the northern half of Kansas have produced several outflow
boundaries that have spread into south-central Kansas. A weak surface
low that covers most of eastern Colorado should drive the east/west oriented
front north today & likewise shift the greatest lower-deck
moisture convergence north/northeast as today progresses. Although
the airmass across most of Kansas would once again become extremely
unstable mid-level warm advection induced by a persistent westerly
component coupled with feeble lower-deck convergence would keep
thunderstorm potential very much in check this afternoon. Tonight,
thunderstorm chances should slowly increase across primarily
eastern Kansas as an intense mid-upper cyclone, that'll move east over
the Canadian prairies, sweeps a pronounced shortwave east across
the northern plains. The shortwave will kick a cold front across
most of the kict jurisdiction. With an increasingly dynamic
pattern severe thunderstorms are certainly possible, especially
across the eastern half of KS, Sunday afternoon & evening. The
compressional heating occurring as the front approaches would also
have significant heat ramifications along the OK border Sunday
afternoon where a heat advisory may be needed. With the mid-level
shortwave shearing as it crosses Ontario Sunday night, the front
would decelerate as it approaches the Kansas/OK border. Thunderstorms
would be expected to continue across southeast Kansas Sunday night.

Mon & Mon night:
the thermostat will get turned up even further & with increasing
humidity a heat advisory is very likely across all of southern Kansas
Mon afternoon.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 347 am CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Scattered thunderstorms are still expected the middle of the week
as a the next cold front sags due south across most of Kansas. With
the front lurking about the premises scattered thunderstorms would
be expected for much of the upcoming work-week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 654 am CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Once again, main aviation concern will be storms this morning and

Storms continue to linger across mainly eastern Kansas with some new
redevelopment over southern Kansas. This activity is expected to
continue shifting east this morning with kcnu having the best
chance to be affected. VFR conditions are expected after morning
storms move out. There will be another chance for storms tonight
but current thinking is they will be slightly further northeast
than last nights convection. So for now, will not put any storms
into tafs due to confidence being so low.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 95 74 96 74 / 30 20 10 10
Hutchinson 95 72 95 72 / 30 20 0 10
Newton 93 73 94 73 / 40 20 10 10
Eldorado 92 73 94 74 / 30 20 20 20
Winfield-kwld 95 76 96 75 / 40 20 10 20
Russell 93 68 93 68 / 10 10 0 0
Great Bend 95 69 94 68 / 20 10 0 0
Salina 93 72 94 71 / 20 20 10 10
McPherson 94 71 94 71 / 30 20 10 10
Coffeyville 93 76 94 75 / 70 20 20 30
Chanute 91 74 93 74 / 60 30 30 30
Iola 90 73 93 73 / 50 30 30 20
Parsons-kppf 92 75 93 74 / 70 20 30 30


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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