Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kict 151133 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
533 am CST sun Dec 15 2019

Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 307 am CST sun Dec 15 2019

Main concern is snow and ice accums with two pronged winter event
today through Monday. Initial isentropic ascent aided by some
frontogenesis/weak instability has resulted in development of
scattered to numerous mixed precip, fine light snow/freezing
drizzle and sleet across much of the forecast area early this
morning. A more focused frontogenetic band of precip may develop
for a time today across the mid-portion of the forecast area,
northeast of the Wichita Metro, with a combo of light snow and ice
accums. There is a suggestion of instability, which could augment
precip type to a bit more snow, so have adjusted amounts up a bit
further to the southeast from the previous forecast. The wintry
mix should become mainly freezing drizzle or scattered light
freezing rain or rain, depending on surface temperatures this
afternoon across the rest of south central and southeast Kansas. A
relative lull or break in the measurable precip to just widely
scattered light freezing drizzle is expected by this evening
before the lift ramps up ahead of the main upper trof late
tonight/Monday. Another frontogenetic band of mixed precip to snow
looks to develop across portions of south central Kansas, the
southern Flint Hills into southeast Kansas on Monday morning into
early afternoon. Overall, the main changes to this forecast are
to shift the Max snowfall for this event a bit further southeast,
which will lessen amounts along the I-70 corridor and increase
them toward the Highway 50 and Highway 54 corridors, including
greater Wichita. That said, storm total snow accums are still
expected to range from 2 to 4 inches, though isolated amounts
around 5 inches will be possible. As for ice accums from freezing
drizzle/freezing rain, still expecting less than one-quarter inch,
mainly across south central and southeast Kansas.

Cold but dry weather expected in the wake of this system for Monday
night and Tuesday.


Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 307 am CST sun Dec 15 2019

Dry weather expected for the latter half of the week. Upper ridge
will move over the area on Wednesday with an upper trof moving
across the plains/Midwest Thursday night/Friday. Temperatures
warming to a little above seasonal climo.



Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 526 am CST sun Dec 15 2019

IFR conditions with wintry precipitation can be expected at all
terminals today. Cnu is the only terminal expected to escape the
bulk of the wintry precip but some periods of freezing
drizzle/rain can be expected. Hut and ict are likely to see some
periods of graupel and snow this morning before changing over to
interment periods of freezing drizzle and possibly freezing rain.
Sln, gbd and rsl are much more likely to stay as all snow but
some periods of freezing drizzle can be expected during the
afternoon and early evening. Later tonight, the precipitation is
expected to shift back to all snow at all terminals with cnu
likely to be the last to change back over to snow. Generally light
accumulations of both snow and ice can be expected through this
taf period.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 32 23 32 19 / 70 60 60 0
Hutchinson 31 21 32 18 / 70 60 60 0
Newton 30 20 30 19 / 80 60 60 0
Eldorado 31 22 30 18 / 80 60 70 10
Winfield-kwld 34 24 33 19 / 60 60 60 0
Russell 29 19 34 16 / 60 30 40 0
Great Bend 30 20 33 17 / 60 40 50 0
Salina 30 19 33 17 / 80 40 50 0
McPherson 30 20 32 17 / 80 50 50 0
Coffeyville 38 27 34 21 / 70 50 60 10
Chanute 33 24 31 18 / 80 50 70 20
Iola 32 23 30 17 / 80 50 70 20
Parsons-kppf 35 26 32 19 / 70 50 70 20


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for ksz032-033-


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations