Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 160733
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
333 am EDT sun Jun 16 2019
a series of upper level disturbances will push east across the
region through mid week. These will combine with a lingering
surface boundary over the Ohio Valley to result in occasional
showers and thunderstorms for the next several days.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
complex forecast in order for today with initial mesoscale convective vortex evident on
radar moving across north central Ohio attm with a trailing
boundary extending back into southwest Ohio and southern
Indiana. Meanwhile another bowing convective complex is pushing
quickly east across central Indiana. In the better instability
south of the trailing boundary, scattered thunderstorms have
developed across southern Illinois/southern Indiana over the
last couple of hours. With a seasonally strong southwest 850 mb
jet continuing across the region through daybreak, expect to
see all of this activity continue to work it way east across
our area through mid morning. Pws are up close to 2 inches and
with relatively deep warm cloud depths, we are getting some
decent heavy rains. Hi res models are suggesting an overall
weakening trend from mid morning Onward as we start to lose the
nocturnal low level jet, so will taper back pops through late
There is some uncertainty for the forecast this afternoon as the
models continue to show quite a bit of instability developing
as dewpoints push into the low 70s and temperatures possibly
work up into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The uncertainty
exists with how fast/if this morning activity dies down and what
kind of lingering debris clouds then have on temperatures. That
coupled with exactly where the residual boundary ends up, all
leads to a low confidence forecast for this afternoon. As a
result, will just allow for chance pops to gradually increase as
we progress through mid to late afternoon.
Will continue with the flash flood advisory through noon with the Assumption that
we will see a decreasing trend in coverage through late
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
broad southwest low level flow will persist across the region
tonight into Monday. The low level jet will be more muted
tonight though so this will likely help keep showers and storms
more scattered overnight. Additional mid level energy will push
east across the region through the day on Monday. This coupled
with the lingering boundary and a possible surface wave riding
east along it, will lead to a continued chance of showers and
storms through the day. Highs on Monday will range from the mid
70s north to around 80 degrees across the far south.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
the active pattern will continue through much of the work week
as we remain in zonal flow aloft. Numerous rounds of mid level
energy/embedded short waves will ride east across the region
through as least Thursday. Thus will continue with fairly high
pops through mid week. There are some hints of some weak
ridging pushing quickly east across the area on Friday so will
just hang on to some slight chance pops then, before another
short wave brings some better chances of pcpn for the weekend.
High temperatures will generally be in the middle 70s to lower
80s through the long term period.
Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
convection will periodically impact the terminals through the
early part of the taf period. Heavier activity will reduce
visibilities to IFR. In addition, ceilings will fall to MVFR to
IFR at all but the Cincinnati terminals. While confidence is not
high, it does appear that precipitation will diminish after 15z
with little occurring later in the day. But will have to monitor
trends to see if any storms can develop closer to 00z. Ceilings
will lift to VFR and eventually scatter after 18z.
Outlook...thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.
Ohio...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for ohz026-034-035-
Kentucky...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for kyz091>093.
In...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for inz050-058-059-066-