Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 162000
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
400 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
cool and breezy conditions will continue through the day on
Thursday. High pressure will work into the region Thursday night
allowing for dry conditions through the day on Saturday. The
potential for unsettled weather returns for the second half of
the weekend and into early next week.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
gusty winds will continue at times through the overnight hours
especially near and north of Interstate 70 through the evening
hours where there will be some wind gusts of 30 to upwards of 40
mph this evening.
Isolated to scattered shower activity will be possible across
primarily northern portions of the forecast area this evening
and into part of the overnight hours with upper level
disturbance and 800 mb winds off of the lake.
Although some temperatures will dip down into the 30s overnight,
expect there to be enough cloud cover and winds to mitigate
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
a pv anomaly pushing into the area during the day on Thursday
will lead to the potential for the chance for sprinkles across
portions of the region. Otherwise, expect dry conditions across
the region for the short term.
Cloud cover will continue during the day Thursday although
southwestern portions of the forecast area across the tri-state
will start to see a decrease in cloud cover later in the day.
This will keep temperatures on the cool side with high
temperatures in the low to middle 50s. Cloud cover will
continue to decrease across the entire area Thursday night into
With the decrease in cloud cover and winds Thursday night into
Friday morning there will be the potential for some frost to
develop across the region.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
surface high pressure and a cool airmass will be in place across the
area during the day on Friday. This will provide for dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
The models are still struggling somewhat on how to handle the
possible phasing of some northern and southern stream energy for
Saturday into Sunday. The GFS and gefs keep the two systems pretty
much separate and thus our area remains in between and dry.
Meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) and to a lesser extent the CMC are showing some
combining of the systems and allowing for some pcpn to overspread
our area, especially across our southeast. As a result, will hang
on to some lower end pops for mainly Saturday night, with the best
chance being across our southeast, but confidence in this is not
terribly high. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Short wave energy moving across the northern plains will help
develop a fairly deep trough across the central US through early
next week. This trough will then begin to shift slowly east and
transition into a somewhat broader trough over the central/eastern
US through mid week. This will initially drive a cold front east
across the Ohio Valley region Monday afternoon into Monday night
night. There are some timing difference between the models with the
front, with the GFS quite a bit faster than the slower European model (ecmwf)/CMC and
will trend toward the slower solution. This will lead to an
increasing chance of showers through Monday afternoon with the
better chance of showers then expected Monday night. Will go ahead
and linger a chance of showers into Tuesday to account for the
possibility of some wrap around pcpn. Will hold off on including
thunder at the moment as the instability is pretty marginal, but
depending on the timing of the front, there could be a narrow window
for a few embedded thunderstorms along/just ahead of the front
heading into Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s,
cooling to highs generally in the lower 60s for Tuesday.
Surface high pressure and some drying will build into the region on
Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 60s.
Aviation /20z Wednesday through Monday/...
MVFR cigs are widespread across the region this afternoon and
will continue into the evening hours. A mix of MVFR and VFR
conditions will be present overnight and into the day on
Thursday. Isolated to scattered shower activity will develop
this afternoon into the early evening hours across primarily the
northern taf sites and handled this with a vcsh.
Gusty winds will increase during the late afternoon and early
evening hours before decreasing some. Off and on wind gusts will
continue however through the taf period.
Outlook...no significant weather is expected at this time.