Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 231435
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1035 am EDT Mon Sep 23 2019
a cold front will push east through the area today, offering
showers and embedded thunderstorms. High pressure will build in
tonight through Tuesday providing cooler and dry weather. Heat
will then build back into the region at the end of the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
cold front has worked its way into northwest counties and will
continue to move east through the day clearing the forecast area
by mid to late afternoon. Precipitation has diminished quite a
bit since early this morning. Even though extensive cloud cover
will limit heating in advance of the front, there still is the
potential for additional showers to develop across southeastern
zones. Clouds will decrease behind the front and there will be
some gusty winds. Expect some Post-frontal rise in temperatures
before cold air advection strengthens although most places will
not reach 80.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
west-northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure
building into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. This drier
and cooler airmass will offer temperatures close to normal.
Expect lows generally in the lower and middle 50s tonight.
The high will build across the area Tuesday with abundant
sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the mid and upper 70s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
we can expect dry weather conditions Tuesday night to Wednesday
morning as surface high pressure is pushed east by a westerly flow
aloft. Cold front driven by increasing jet stream winds will bring a
chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. Chance for severe weather appears minimal
under marginal instability.
For the rest of the period from Thursday afternoon through Sunday,
surface high pressure followed by a broad upper ridge featuring
anomalous 500mb heights of 5900 meters will probably result in dry
Expect high temperatures around 80 Wednesday, falling to the near
normal mid and upper 70s Thursday under modest cold advection behind
the front. As we near the end of September, look for a rebound to
well above normal readings in the mid and upper 80s Friday through
Sunday due to warm advection and abundant sunshine in the subsident
circulation around the high.
Aviation /15z Monday through Friday/...
a cold front will move across the terminals over the next
several hours. There are some IFR ceilings out ahead of the
front, although most places are MVFR. Clouds will diminish after
the front moves through, eventually scattering to allow for a
return to VFR. West northwest wind may gust to around 20 kt for
a period of time this afternoon.
Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight
offering clear skies. Have a mention of MVFR vsby restriction at
kluk valley location toward sunrise Tuesday.
Outlook...no significant weather expected.