Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 100554
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
1254 am EST Tue Dec 10 2019
a cold front will move through the region tonight, shunting much
of the precipitation eastward. Much colder air will move in
behind the front late tonight into Tuesday. Mid week will be
cold and dry before temperatures rebound.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
cold front bisects the area with a narrow line of rain along it.
Other bands of rain have been moving across northern Kentucky
into south central Ohio. Front will move east of the area
overnight. But before it does, it appears that there will be
some enhancement/expansion of precipitation across southeast
counties late tonight. Rainfall amounts will not be very high,
but this will keep precipitation a bit longer across those
areas. Otherwise it will remain cloudy. West winds will diminish
in gustiness but sustained speeds will persist in the 10 to 20
mph range. Temperatures will be dropping right through daybreak
Tuesday. Forecast lows look reasonable.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Wednesday/...
pcpn lingers in the far southeast as southwest flow aloft
brings a stream of upper support across eastern Kentucky into
West Virginia. During the morning hours, the cold air catches up
with the lingering pcpn, changing it over to a mix, then all
snow before it ends. Any snowfall should be less than an inch.
Elsewhere clouds will linger most of the day. Temperatures will
hold near steady in the west and will fall in the east during
Surface high pressure will building in from the west Tuesday
night. Area should see decreasing clouds. Temperatures will
bottom out between 20 and 25 degrees.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
pattern through the end of the week seems fairly consistent.
The weekend weather into next week is also consistent but that's
not a confidence booster since the increased range in forecast
values and large scale phase differences of the patterns is what
was consistently in high question.
Wednesday starts as the general Cold Point of the entire forecast.
Highs will reach the lower to mid 30s, which may be a slight
increase from daytime readings that will be found in the northwest
on Tuesday. Overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s will occur
given the proximity of a surface high and entrenched cold air at the
surface leading to light winds. Return southerly flow will bump
readings slightly during the day on Thursday as the high slides east
- generally looking for middle to upper 30s across the region.
The warm advection will be more noted with temperatures not falling
as much overnight and hitting the balmy middle to upper 20s. Some
lower 20s in central Ohio may persist due winds not having had much
time to scour out the lingering cold air. Friday and Saturday will
see the warmer air with highs in the middle 40s and lows in the low
to mid 30s which are still slightly above normal for this time of
The model differences begin on Friday as they come to terms with a
system ejecting northeast along the eastern Seaboard. Rain on Friday
into the overnight period may not make it as far northwest as the
models are showing, but the threat of rain on the return northwest
flow will be increased on Saturday into Sunday, ending sometime
Sunday. Another disturbance is being shown to cross east and
increase the threat of rain on Monday. Confidence in the forecast
decreases from the initial northwest extent of rain on Friday and
then the subsequent pattern beyond. Temperatures were kept close to
guidance which seemed to be influenced heavily by climo.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
cold front has cleared the airports at this hour, with winds now
from the west with gusts to near 20 knots. Gusts should begin to
subside in the next few hours. Generally low MVFR ceilings will
persist at the terminals through the night. Latest guidance
shows a lifting trend to in the Cincinnati area terminals around
12z, but low clouds don't mix out at the rest of the terminals
Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday and