Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 Kiln 222357
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio
757 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
a cold front will continue to move south through the Ohio
Valley this evening. High pressure will build into the Great
Lakes and Northern Ohio valley Friday, bringing drier and cooler
weather this weekend. Moisture will make a return northward
into the area late Sunday and into Monday as winds turn
southeast, bringing the next chance for rain on Monday.
Near term /until 7 am Friday morning/...
cold front is in northern sections of the County Warning Area running from near
Richmond in to Bellefontaine to Mansfield, though the wind shift
to northwest has been south of the Ohio River and rest of County Warning Area
for several hours. Dewpoints in the lower 60s behind the front
will continue to lower overnight, and readings will range from
the upper 50s in the northwest to the mid 60s along and south of
the Ohio River. Some mid 50s may be present north of a Celina-
Wapakoneta-Kenton line by daybreak, especially if skies clear.
Cloud cover will hold tough overnight for most areas but could
clear in the north and see some scattering out well northwest
of the I-71 corridor.
Given the extensive cloud cover today, convective temperatures
were nowhere near being met and lapse rates were hardly able to
support but a few lightning strikes in the County Warning Area after this
morning's round of weather. Have pared back the chances of
showers - scattered more than likely, and only indicated a
slight chance of a thunderstorm through daybreak.
Short term /7 am Friday morning through Friday night/...
any precipitation chances in the southern sections of the
forecast area should be on their way out by early to mid
afternoon. A sprawling area of surface high pressure will be
centered over northern Ontario by Friday evening, controlling an
air mass that will extend clear through the iln County Warning Area by the
overnight hours going into Saturday morning. This air mass will
be characterized by dew points falling well into the 50s,
clearing skies, and cooler temperatures.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
high pressure, centered north of the Great Lakes, will bring a
dry start to the extended on Saturday. Highs will be slightly
below normal, ranging between 75 and 80 degrees.
As the high slips off into New England on Sunday, temperatures
will begin to warm. Humidity will also be on the increase
Sunday. The GFS is the quickest in bringing quantitative precipitation forecast back into the
region, lifting it into the tri-state after 18z. Went with the
slower consensus and kept Sunday dry.
Southerly flow on the backside of the high, will bring in a
more humid and unstable airmass for next week. 500 mb S/W will eject
out through the region Sunday night through early next week.
This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night
through Tuesday. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower
to mid 80s.
Weak high pressure builds in for Wednesday providing a
temporary dry out, but then an approaching cold front will bring
another chance of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected with just a few showers possible at
kcvg/kluk and possibly Kiln for the next few hours. Used vcsh
here and have some lower cigs dipping into the MVFR category
for the next few hours everywhere, but continuing into the
morning at kcvg/kluk.
While not expected, am keeping an eye out for any upstream
convection and will amend if necessary and do not see it as a
real possibility outside of kcvg/kluk.
Drier air will work in from the north Friday and skies will
scatter out and then clear beyond the valid taf period.
Outlook...thunderstorms are possible on Monday.