Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kilx 141516 
afdilx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
1016 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Synopsis...
issued at 251 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Abundant sunshine will prevail across central Illinois today with
afternoon high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s far north
around Galesburg and Lacon...to the upper 60s south of I-70.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight...with scattered showers
developing in the Illinois River valley toward dawn.

&&

Update...
issued at 1015 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

High pressure will continue to provide fair weather conditions
across central Illinois through the remainder of today. Going
forecast is on track and only have made minor tweaks to hourly
trends to account for latest observations. Frost advisory was
allowed to expire on schedule this morning.

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 251 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

High pressure will build into the region today, providing sunny
skies and light winds. Afternoon highs will top out mostly in the
lower to middle 60s, with slightly cooler readings in the upper
50s north of the Peoria area. A short-wave trough evident on
07z/2am water vapor imagery over the northern rockies will track
eastward tonight...resulting in surface cyclogenesis in the
Dakotas/Minnesota. While this low and its trailing cold front will
remain well west/northwest of Illinois, a few models are trying to develop
scattered showers across the Illinois River valley toward dawn.
Given decent consensus among the hrrr/arw/namnest, have gone with
low chance pops west of the I-55 corridor after 09z/4am. Overnight
lows will range from around 40 degrees close to the Indiana
border where skies will remain clear...to the upper 40s across the
far west/SW kilx County Warning Area.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 251 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

The cold front will progress eastward on tuesday: however, an
overall lack of deep-layer moisture will inhibit widespread precip
development until late afternoon/evening as the front is exiting
into Indiana. Have carried slight chance pops through the morning,
then have increased to chance east of I-55 during the afternoon.
High temperatures will range from the lower 60s northwest of the
Illinois River where the front will pass earliest...to the middle
70s south of I-70. All models agree that the boundary will
eventually intercept adequate Gulf of Mexico moisture by Tuesday
evening, with showers and thunderstorms becoming numerous across
southeast Illinois into the Ohio River valley. Have therefore ramped pops
up to high chance to likely across the far east/southeast during the early
evening before the convection quickly pushes into Indiana well
before midnight. Once the front passes, breezy and cooler weather
will be on tap Tuesday night.

The coolest day of the forecast period will be Wednesday as strong
cold air advection develops on brisk northwesterly winds gusting 25-30mph. In
addition, wrap-around cloud cover associated with the deepening
low over the Great Lakes will spread across the northern half of
the County Warning Area. Given the cloud cover and northwesterly winds, highs will
struggle to reach 50 degrees along/north of I-74...while readings
further south where more sunshine will be seen will only rise into
the middle 50s. Skies will clear and winds will diminish Wednesday
night, allowing overnight lows to dip to frosty readings in the
middle to upper 30s.

After that, a warming trend will get underway for the end of the
week as the upper flow regime gradually becomes more
southwesterly. Highs will rise well into the 60s on Friday, then
will climb back into the 70s over the weekend. All models show a
weak short-wave trough passing through the region Friday night
into Saturday morning...with varying solutions on how much precip
will be associated with the feature. Have only added slight chance
pops for showers at this time. It appears the best chance for
widespread rainfall will hold off until early next week as a
significant storm system slowly approaches from the southwest.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 537 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 12z taf period.
Winds will initially be light/variable this morning, then will
become west/SW at 5-10kt this afternoon. Winds will back to southeast after
sunset, but will remain under 10kt through the night. Models
depict a strengthening low-level jet developing ahead of the next
weather system overnight, so have added wind shear to
kpia/kspi/kbmi after 09z. Mid/high clouds will increase from west
to east, with perhaps a few showers arriving at kpia toward 12z
Tue.



&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations