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FXUS63 KIND 150456

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1156 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

High pressure in general is expected across the area through the end 
of the week. A weak front may affect the area around Sunday. High 
pressure will return for early next week.


.NEAR TERM /This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Leading edge of an extensive low cloud deck over the southern Great 
Lakes is sagging through the northwest zones. Short term model data 
and low level flow suggest this deck will continue to drift 
southeast during the rest of the afternoon and evening. Model data 
suggest this deck may scatter out later tonight, but with a strong 
inversion developing above about 950mb, it is questionable how much 
clearing will take place. Will go a little more pessimistic with the 
cloud cover tonight.

Based on expected cloud cover, will bump up the GFS MOS lows tonight 
about 3-5 degrees.


.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Dry conditions expected for most of the short term, with high 
pressure generally in control. Potential for lingering lower cloud 
well into the day Friday, as well as the potential for additional 
low cloud development within a cold advection zone Friday night and 
Saturday, lends to a lower confidence forecast with respect to sky 
cover and temperatures, especially early in the period. Will 
increase the cloud cover some into Saturday to allow for the low 
cloud potential.

Next upper trough is progged to move into the Midwest by Sunday 
afternoon. Trough looks fairly sharp at this range, and some 
ensembles are beginning to show light QPF potential over the 
northwest/northern zones by Sunday afternoon. Will add some small 
chance PoPs for light showers in these areas.

Will raise the GFS MOS lows for Friday night, and lower the guidance 
highs for Saturday a bit, based on the low cloud potential. Other 
periods will leave as is for now.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Confidence is high for temperatures but rather low for
precipitation chances this period.

The ECMWF generally suggests broad NW flow in place across Indiana
through much of next week...which will result in temperatures 
still below normals for much of next week.

An upper level trough is suggested to push across Indiana and the
Great Lakes on Monday through Tuesday Night with ample lift
suggested. However the pattern within the lower levels appears
less favorable...with a broad and diffuse...and poorly organized
negatively tilted trough stretching from the northern plains to
Indiana and Kentucky. Deep moisture remains cut off as upper flow
remains mainly from the NW. Thus have included some low chance
pops for now on Monday Night through Tuesday Night...mainly across
northern parts of Central Indiana...but confidence is low.

Dry weather appears in storm on Wednesday as ridging builds aloft
and at the surface in the wake of the departing trough.

Pops will return to the forecast on Thursday as the ECMWF suggests
a strong trough dipping into Indiana late in the day from Ontario
and the Western Great Lakes.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 15/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1148 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Persistent MVFR cloud deck will linger into the night, but it 
should clear out after Fri 09Z. At that point, VFR will become 
the predominant flight category again through the remainder of the
TAF period. Meanwhile, winds will generally be variable at 5 to 10






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