Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kjan 260242 aaa 
afdjan

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
942 PM CDT sun Aug 25 2019

Update...
updated for evening discussion.

&&

Discussion...
showers continue this evening for portions of the area. Activity
is expected to continue through the overnight out ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Lows will mainly be in the lower to
middle 70s. As for the forecast, made some minor adjustments to
the pops for this evening into the overnight based on latest radar
and model guidance. /27/

Prior discussion below:



This afternoon through tomorrow:

The current short-term forecast continues to unfold generally as
anticipated this afternoon. The one exception is that there has been
less than anticipated coverage of showers and thunderstorms across
the western half of our forecast area (northeast la, southeast
AR, and western ms). Looking at satellite imagery, there may be
some influence of drier air beginning to wrap around the mid-level
circulation associated with a shortwave approaching from our
northwest. Otherwise, increased moisture being advected northward
from the Gulf of Mexico has helped shower and thunderstorm
activity across the eastern half of Mississippi be efficient at
rainfall production this afternoon. Some 2 to 4 inch rainfall
amounts have been reported so far from Choctaw County this
afternoon, and looking at dual-pol data there have been a few
storms with estimated 4 to 6 inch per hour rainfall rates at
times.

Synoptic scale lift ahead of the approaching shortwave trough axis
will help showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to continue
through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. Areas along
and east of Interstate 55 have the best chance for seeing rainfall
through mid-morning, with chances decreasing throughout the day
tomorrow as the trough axis pushes east of the forecast area. Given
the last few days of heavy rain scattered around the same areas
seeing rain today (and threat for heavy rain through tomorrow
morning), we will continue to highlight a limited threat for flash
flooding in our severe weather potential statement for the Pine belt area northward through the
Golden Triangle area through tomorrow. Drier air should begin to
edge into the Delta by tomorrow afternoon, and clearing skies will
allow for daytime heating to warm those areas up to around 90
degrees. /Nf/

Monday night through wednesday:

Rain chances will decrease Monday night in the wake of the
departing surface low/upper disturbance. However, this break will
be short lived as a cold front approaches the area on Tuesday.
Guidance is hinting at some possibility of a remnant mesoscale convective system moving
into the area early in the day Tuesday, though there is some
disagreement on exactly what if any portions of the forecast area
this would impact. Regardless of whether there is activity in the
morning, a surge of deep moisture ahead of the front will aid in
plentiful convective coverage in the afternoon. Before and outside
of any rain, the combination of warmth and humidity may lead to
heat indices in the 100-105 range, but the potential for early
convection to disrupt heating casts too much doubt to warrant
mentioning heat stress in the hwo/graphics.

The front will make slow progress across the region, with
scattered storms remaining possible overnight Tuesday night into
Wednesday. However, during the day Wednesday we should begin to
see decreasing rain coverage from the north as a drier airmass
finally advects into the region.

Thursday through next sunday: for the end of the week, it will
feel much more pleasant thanks to a noticeably drier airmass
behind the cold front. Morning lows in the 60s will be common
through the weekend. Even with daytime highs remaining seasonable,
this will be a much nicer version of temperatures in the 90s. As
the airmass gradually modifies, moisture will slowly tick back
upward over next weekend, with isolated to scattered storms
becoming possible again by Sunday. /Dl/

&&

Aviation...
00z taf discussion:
a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across taf sites this
evening as showers continue to move northeast across the area.
These conditions will continue through the evening hours, but most
sites should become MVFR/IFR through the overnight hours as
widespread stratus clouds develop. We should get a break from the
bulk of the showers this evening, but expect another round to
develop very early on Monday and move across the arklamiss, as a
low pressure system moves northeast over the area./15/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 73 85 73 90 / 69 63 12 58
Meridian 73 83 72 90 / 82 84 25 58
Vicksburg 74 89 75 91 / 44 36 8 57
Hattiesburg 73 84 73 90 / 80 86 19 58
Natchez 74 88 75 91 / 67 48 7 51
Greenville 74 89 74 90 / 27 28 16 65
Greenwood 73 86 74 88 / 56 50 14 64

&&

Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations