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fxus64 kjan 202051 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
351 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

tonight and wednesday: isolated convection from this afternoon
will diminish this evening, with dry weather expected overnight as
upper level ridging remains across the region. Lows tonight will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s.

For tomorrow, expect another day of incresed heat stress especially
in the Delta. Highs tomorrow will range from near 90 in the
southeast to the mid 90s in the northwest. Heat index values around
105 will be possible across portions of the central and west, with a
limited risk mentioned in the severe weather potential statement for these areas. As moisture
continues to increase across the area from the south, there will be
better chances for showers/storms tomorrow, with the best chances in
the south. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out for tomorrow.

Wednesday night through monday: at the beginning of the period, mid
level ridge continues to be draped across the southern US, but
center over the Southern Plains looks to continue to break down and
eventually become re-centered over the southern Florida Peninsula by late
week. This repositioning will lead to deeper southerly flow (still
weak) and deeper moisture coming in off the Gulf of Mexico. Pws
around 1.7 inches early in the period will be replaced by 2+ inch
values by late week, thus much more prolific convective coverage
will be encountered by Thursday moving into the weekend. Ridging
will try to re-establish itself to the west by Sunday, but this will
keep the forecast area in a weakness between the two high centers.
This will keep convective chances up as high precipitable water air remains over the
area. Increased cloud cover and convection will keep temperatures
from getting much above 90 while temperatures at night fall back
into the low to mid 70s./Gg/


18z taf discussion:
VFR conditions should prevail at most sites through much of the
period. Isolated to scattered storms may bring brief MVFR/IFR
conditions to mei/pib/hbg this afternoon and evening. IFR conditions
due to stratus/fog may return to pib/hbg early on Wednesday. /27/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 73 92 73 90 / 13 51 15 55
Meridian 71 92 72 92 / 21 52 19 50
Vicksburg 74 93 74 92 / 8 46 13 53
Hattiesburg 71 89 73 90 / 19 64 17 60
Natchez 73 90 73 90 / 15 62 14 58
Greenville 74 94 74 91 / 3 21 13 48
Greenwood 73 92 74 90 / 8 28 16 48


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for msz018-019-025>043-

La...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for laz007>009-015-016-

Arkansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for arz074-075.

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