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fxus64 kjan 221926 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
226 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

tonight and monday:

All is quiet over the arklamiss today as temps remain about 5
degrees above normal for this time of the year. The ridge axis is
sitting just off to our east today and by looking at the satellite
imagery, you can see the anti-cyclonic flow around it in the low
level cumulus field. You can also see a trough digging across the
northern plains dragging a frontal boundary through the central part
of the country currently. As this trough moves eastward tonight and
Monday and the boundary runs into the deep subtropical ridge over
the southeast, the boundary will become east-west oriented and
stretch out over the mid-south. As the main forcing remains with the
trough moving eastward, there will be a limited amount of showers
and storms re-develop along the boundary on Monday. Some of these
may Grace our northern counties tomorrow afternoon. Overall though,
this boundary will not affect US much as it remains to our north.
High temps will again be in the low 90s on Monday with winds out of
the south-southwest. /10/

Monday night through the week...

Not much change will occur this week with regard to the overall
synoptic pattern. Upper ridging will still have a large influence
over our weather. The only thing that is of note will be a front
that will try to drop south into the region Monday and Tuesday.
Models show it getting further into the forecast area than was the
case yesterday, which may bring a little more in the way of rain to
my northern counties. However, significant or widespread rain or
storms are not expected. This front, along with any rain potential,
will fizzle out by late Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper ridge
reestablishes itself over the region. This will result in dry
conditions as well as increasing temperatures.

Early in the week, temperatures will be in the lower 90s and some
upper 80s possible given proximity of the front/cloud cover and rain
potential. As the week progresses, daytime highs will reach into the
lower to mid 90s. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to
lower 70s through the week. One potential positive is that despite
the warmer temperatures, dewpoints should be able to mix and remain
mostly in the 60s by mid to late week. This should help conditions
feel not so bad despite the above normal highs. /28/


18z taf discussion:
VFR conditions are expected throughout the next 24 hours. Some low
level cumulus will be scattered throughout the region today at
around 3-5k ft and will dissipate and clear out later this
evening. Surface winds will be out of the south-southeast between
5-10 kts. Some brief patchy fog may be possible near daybreak
tomorrow at pib & hbg, if winds become calm. /10/


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 69 92 71 91 / 0 2 5 24
Meridian 66 93 70 91 / 0 1 5 30
Vicksburg 71 95 71 93 / 0 4 6 20
Hattiesburg 66 91 69 93 / 0 1 2 10
Natchez 70 92 71 91 / 0 2 3 12
Greenville 70 92 72 90 / 0 25 25 40
Greenwood 71 91 71 89 / 0 19 22 38


Jan watches/warnings/advisories...


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